American Fortune Life
Chapter 615: Another Profitable Investment
From its inception, the world's largest hedge fund, the Bridge Water Fund, has been guided by the principle of "superior ideas" rather than the principle of “superior powers”. Andy is deeply convinced and admires this principle of decision-making.
To make the best ideas stand out, the first step must be for everyone to show them to you, and the second step is for everyone to criticize each other and make different opinions. That was why there was intense debate and the atmosphere was as regular as the Rome Forum.
How can decisions be made in the end when there is disagreement?
Andy's own way of judging is to take full account of everyone's different backgrounds, then give different weights to the opinions expressed by people with different expertise, and finally make decisions about weighted calculations. In this case, both fair ownership of the decision-making process and the scientific and feasible xing of the final decision result are guaranteed.
Outstanding ideas and perspectives, of course, require careful consideration by Alvitelli, the chief adviser of the think tank, as a rigorous and systematic decision-making mechanism that enables good ideas to be put into action.
There's no way, Andy doesn't want to go through all this. Isn't that just making money? As a traveler, it's enough to open a golden finger. The problem is that Andy was only 22 years old this year, and by 2015 he was only in his thirties. Without a strategic vision and the advantages of crossing, Andy couldn't guarantee that he would make a failed decision in the unknown future.
Ever since he crossed, everything he's done has been successful, because he knows exactly how to do it. Likewise, success will only make him path-dependent, repetitive of past actions and unable to achieve progress.
Humanity's Tianxing is complacent, and everyone wants their abilities recognized by others. Andy can't guarantee that he won't expand, and once someone disagrees with him, he may subconsciously see his subordinates' disapproval as a challenge or even get angry. In such a state, there is a high risk of dysfunction and possible errors in decision-making, thus failing to achieve the established goals.
Everyone has blind spots. Some people are short-sighted, things in the distance are naturally invisible, others are far-sighted, things in the vicinity are invisible. Everyone thinks the same way when they think about a problem, and their habitual mindset may prevent them from making an accurate and comprehensive assessment of the situation.
With a proactive mind, Andy started building his own team that was strong enough to defend his right position, so that he could get used to the best idea-based decision making principles and protect his family and career, even without the visionary vision of the crosser.
“Those who do not plan for all the worlds are not enough to plan for a time; those who do not plan for the whole world are not enough to plan for a place.” Or it would be more appropriate to use the Gu Ansi crisis as an expression, he doesn't want to fail, he likes the feeling of winning, so he is willing to sit in the conference room and watch people argue and argue, his own point of view is rejected by the unrelenting rebuttal of the subordinates sitting here. Be willing to review a large number of detailed reports and a summary of the content of each discussion at any given time.
Perhaps one would consider this to be a provocation to Andy's authority, and the communication between his subordinates would be too harsh, and it would make one feel very repressed, often in a state of doubt. But Andy thinks it's too glassy an employee for his risk management team to really need it.
The investment industry is one in which reason is critically needed, and personal emotions need to be blocked. Extremely rational people, they can accept rude feedback and questioning from others, not be kidnapped and influenced by personal and market sentiment, and adhere to their own investment principles. It is therefore easier to stand out in the market.
At the same time, Andy is also trying to test his measurements and build his chest tone.
Andy was comfortably nestled in the boss's chair, his eyes slightly squinting with the rest of the conference room to the only tall young man standing, his hair three-and-a-half combed very clearly, because of his short hair, with glue or waxy shapes, the sleeves of the white shirt rolled up, not frightened, the expression on his face was full of confidence and complacency, and he had explained his views to everyone, before he had wiped out the views of the other two with a great deal of data.
“ This subprime crisis has shifted the Federal Reserve from monetary policy, which was designed to control inflation, to monetary policy, which prevents economic downturns. To save the market, the Federal Reserve, in addition to continuously transfusing blood into the financial system, will then use a continuous downward adjustment of interest rates and a simultaneous downward adjustment of commercial banks' overnight borrowing rates.
After all, the Fed does not have many cards to play. The spread between the dollar and the euro and the pound sterling will increase dramatically. At the same time, it is expected that banks in other countries will sell the dollar. This will make the downward pressure on the dollar even greater. The continuous depreciation of the dollar will surely not let go of this opportunity. Crude oil prices will spike at a stage of xing. Now the price of crude oil is $65 per barrel, and I analyzed the expected price at least double... Please give me a breakdown, which supports the data in my conclusion. ”
Andy also took a little paperwork and smiled at the young people who were still distributing the information: "Martin, I thought you, a foreign exchange analyst, were going to target the depreciation of the dollar, but I didn't think you were going to be so prepared for crude oil. ”
Martin Enron smiled brilliantly on his face, revealing his big white teeth, and looked at his big boss with a smile in his hand and said: “The depreciation of the dollar is certain, but governments will certainly increase the blood transfusion to the financial system in order to save the market. After all, the Fed is not the only one at home with enough horsepower to print money, and everyone prints money out of their homes. In this case, while foreign exchange spending can make money, the amount of money invested and the profits are proportionate, rather, there is no crude oil futures available for higher value. ”
Andy nodded in agreement and began to turn over the data analysis in his hand, causing a brief silence throughout the conference room, with only breathing and flipping paper.
Andy's over-eyed plug-in allows him to read far more than ordinary people. After reading the data at first glance, he closes his eyes, switches to superdeity, and begins to look in his mind for memories of the price of crude oil during this period.
But as several memories were searched out, Andy's eyebrows wrinkled, and he remembered only one show he'd seen, an expert analysis of what had been rising crude oil prices since 9/11 in 2001, from $20 per barrel to nearly $150 per barrel in 2008, because the United States had been holding back and trying to pit the rabbit country, instead of bringing Iran back to life, and then, at the height of the financial crisis, crude oil fell again to $40 per barrel, which the show said was the deadly kill that the United States was going to use to bring down the Russian economy.
So, Martin's analysis is very accurate, and crude oil is going to go wild, but Andy really can't find a time point to fall, but forget it, just set a closing line, set a benchmark of $140 per barrel without going after the highest point.
To think of it, Andy opened his eyes, his frowning eyes widened at the same time, his cheerful slight smile on his face, his eyes swept over Martin's plain face, and then he looked at the material still reading carefully, his eyebrows slightly wrinkled Alvitelli, waiting for his comment.
“This plan works!” Al finally finished watching, looked Andy in the eye, saw the smile on the face of the big boss, and he smiled lightly, looking around at the people sitting there a week later, and commented on him.
“Well, Martin, you go to the Free City Investment Corporation later and form your team, and I'll give you 200 million dollars first, and when I'm done robbing the British pound exchange rate, I'll draw the money to run it.” Andy looked at Martin with a smile and a glimpse of hope, but since he knew the crude oil price node, he was relieved that Alvitelli was more of a scientifically based analysis and judgment based on the information, and once the plan submitted by the Risk Management team was adopted, he naturally immediately formed a team with the main JING themes.