American Fortune Life

“ Boss, to sum up, 2009 is going to be a turning year for the world economy, and we can see a surprisingly high consistency between the Dow Jones stock index and the population consumption age curve.

Rather, it is clear that the stock market reflects the performance expectations of listed companies, whose performance depends on product sales, which naturally derive from people's consumption, which drives more than 70 per cent of GDP in the United States.

Consumption needs to have consumers, strong consumers in the years... ”

Andy wrapped his arms around the boss's chair and listened with interest to a young elite in a think tank opposite the computer monitor who was articulating his views on population and economy.

Based on the underlying trends in the current economy, the panic of the financial crisis seems to have subsided temporarily, and the light of hope for economic recovery seems to be on the horizon.

However, the real intellectuals know that what they need to focus on is not what happened to the financial tsunami, but what will happen to the world after it.

Andy can look at the future world economy and strategize with a whole new perspective on the ideas put forward by think-tank members that the world will enter the ice age of consumption.

“Boss, look, we can see from the figure that the last turning point in the peak of the Baby Boom generation was in 1962... ”

Young think-tank members stood in front of the projector and used a laser pen to dot a picture, continuing to say, "This demographic curve has been adjusted by the immigrant population, given the enormous migration of America to MIN.

Please keep in mind the 1962 figure.

Between 1946 and 1964, the United States was born with 77 million people, a quarter of the American population, who are the backbone of today's American society.

With the growth of these Baby Boom generations, the economy of the United States has progressed to a dazzling period of prosperity...

It creates the largest stock market hike in history, house price hikes and demand for international aviation, personal computers, computer networks and sports and leisure tools.

According to United States Department of Labor statistics, the peak consumer life expectancy in the United States is 47 years of age, when life is in its prime years, its years of strength, and its income reaches its peak.

And once the age of 47, people began to think about retirement and old age, and their bodies were getting worse, and they had to prepare for medical treatment and medication. Since then, people's expectations for future income have declined, consumption has slowed down, and life has become less and less prosperous.

As the age increases, various YWs start to go downhill as well.

Let's look back at the kids who were born in 1962 at the Baby Boom slip point... ”

As the laser pen dots another chart, the crowd in the conference room and Andy, far from San Francisco, get a little more serious.

“After 47 years of luxury, this group arrived at the turning year of their lives, 2009.

The world suddenly faded, economic prosperity suddenly disappeared, the financial tsunami rallied and the tide of unemployment swept in.

At this point, they suddenly discovered that they had lost nearly half of their pensions invested in the stock market, and that bank account deposits had always been "thin as cicadas” because of their perennial foothold, while they had already become indebted because of their indulgent lifestyle and wanton forward consumption.

In such a situation, they will plummet from the consumption curve of normal aging, accelerating the fastening and tightening of their belts in order to cope with the harsh economic cold of the future.

In 2009, just at the edge of the cliff represented by the population consumption curve, a further step forward was the turning point of the Consumer Falls.

When the last Baby Boom generation slipped past its peak consumption age of 47 in 2009, what follows is a sharply declining consumption cycle lasting until 2024.

This will be a 14-year downturn in consumption, and with high indebtedness, the US consumer market will be plunged into a long glacial period comparable to the 1930s!

Keep in mind that neither monetary nor fiscal policies will have a visible effect on an ageing generation, and that these policies will ultimately not allow people to return to old age. It was not realistic to encourage older persons to borrow and consume boldly, and the annual contraction of consumption would deprive the currently bright economic recovery of fertile credit grounds.

Worse still, Europe's population cycle coincides with that of the United States, and the two major economic segments of Europe and the United States will be plunged into a period of long-term consumption of ice.

This would be a dramatic change in the economic ecological environment for all emerging countries with significant excess productive capacity, mainly targeted at European and American markets. Countries unable to adapt to this dramatic change in the scale of the disaster will be eliminated and the road ahead will be extremely difficult. ”

Hearing this, Andy's eyebrows were already wrinkled, without any thought: “One day, the two demographic powers, the Dynasty and India, their markets... ”

“The bosses, both in the Heavenly Dynasty and in India, are emerging countries that are experiencing severe excess productive capacity, mainly exported from the European and American markets, which have not been completely liberalized, and whose demographic policies have slowly led them to age, and whose demographic dividends will gradually disappear over the next decade. As for India, there is hesitation that their social disparities between rich and poor are too large and that their large populations appear to be large, but their consumption capacity remains to be observed. ”

Andy was not upset by his subordinates interrupting his words, but heard the other party's explanation and thought that, after all, before he came here, Tian Dynasty had let go of giving birth, listened to his subordinates' statement, and he also had a feeling that Masseton had opened up.

Seemingly to testify to these views, Alvitelli has been talking to Andy: "Boss, we just got a set of data this morning that shows a 1.8% increase in January's revised retail data as well. ”

Andy nodded slightly, which was undoubtedly good news, a good news that could drive the stock market to continue rebounding, and the recovery in retail sales was seen as a key indicator of economic reversal, as sales spending accounted for two-thirds of the total economy in the United States.

“Has the message been released? This is good news, and retail data makes people feel that there is still an independent force needed to boost economic recovery. ”

The opening surge in U.S. equities did not last long, and the rise in financial and technological equities was offset by the low energy and medical sector, especially as investors' optimism about banking quickly subsided and doubts surrounding the market's overall outlook crushed the market again during the luncheon, even stopping the rise and fall of major equity fingers.

If the stock market continues to rebound, some good news is needed to support it at this time. Andy doesn't have to worry about the upside and downside of the stock tip after the lunch disc. After all, he knows that several good news will be released in the afternoon, but now that January retail data has risen, he certainly won't underestimate the good news that clearly boosts the stock market.

Inventories are dwindling, supply and demand are becoming more balanced, surviving firms will have a stronger base, and unemployment may gradually decrease. In this context, even the general public understands that at least the dawn of an economic reversal can be seen from these data, even if such a reversal may not take place in the coming months.

“It has been released, and if the stock market still moves narrowly an hour before closing, it will only be released if the Fed implements a more quantitative relaxation of the New Deal, at least to ensure that it rises this year and continues the rebound momentum of yesterday.” Alvitelli said in a serious manner.

Andy nodded, then said to the young elite who had explained before: "Jack Claude, well done, great presentation, keep working, keep studying in your direction. If there is indeed an inherent law in the economy, then the role of manpower must be smooth, familiar with the law and managing the ups and downs, which is important for investors. ”

“Thank you, boss. I'll keep trying.” Jack Claude was a little excited to thank the big boss for his approval and praise.

“Well, actually, you can take a walk in heaven and see, for this big market in heaven and earth, we can't miss the opportunity offered by their demographic dividend.” Andy nodded satisfactorily, then proposed.

“Okay, boss.” Jack Claude knew that his opportunity had come, and in a think tank stacked with talent, the fear was that the boss would not notice and be able to arrange work for the boss, which absolutely heralded the opportunity in front of him, and how could he not grasp it firmly?

Andy nodded satisfied with the other party's attitude and continued to listen to others. His role as a think tank was to let these people start their own brains and summarize the analysis, ideas and opinions of these elites, and broaden their minds. Otherwise, why do you feed them?