American Fortune Life
Chapter 1881: Really Seeing the Future, Andy
Since mid-March, when Andy began buying the United States from the bottom, he has rebounded to the bottom, and although there have been a lot of bo-folds in the process, it has been a big rebound from the BO, but after entering June, the United States stock market began to rebound.
Some analysts have even begun to anticipate a longer fall in the stock market, especially as the performance disclosure period moves forward, disappointing investors.
US shares and European stock markets closed low last Friday because consumer confidence indices fell short of expectations. So far, the U.S.-European stock market has fallen for four weeks.
Early warning of the performance of listed companies and declining consumer confidence in the United States highlight concerns about the economic recovery and possible weakening of the company's Q2 results. In addition, the continued decline in oil prices, with U.S. crude oil futures falling below $60, triggered investors to sell some of their energy stocks.
“While there is some positive news, the main concern is that we are still in recession.” Albert's list gives Andy a sobering account of the current problems facing the United States financial markets.
According to some deflationary data available to think tanks, demand has not rebounded despite falling commodity prices, with declining stocks and rising unemployment.
The S&P 500 rose by about 40 percent from a 12-year low in mid-March, but the index fell by 7 percent from a high on June 12, and the stock market is expected to continue to fall for some time in the future, especially as the performance disclosure period moves forward, disappointing investors.
And the New York Stock Exchange turnover last Friday also illustrates a number of problems, which are quite pale, at just over 900 million shares, well below the estimated daily turnover of 1.5 billion shares last year, with the NYSE up and down 1437 to 1525. ”
Listen, Alvitelli, like Jia Zhen, introduced himself to all kinds of data and analysis, Andy generally looked at the financial data in his hand, nodded satisfactorily, he didn't care about falling back compared to the money he earned from the transcript, besides, the funds invested in the stock index futures had long been withdrawn, and now he holds the vast majority of the blue-chip shares, so he wasn't ready to move for a short time, so he wasn't worried about the short-term upside and downside.
“Now that the shock has fallen, let's not change everything.” Andy closes the files in his hand and puts them on the desk next to him, and the financial data, he needs to go back and take a closer look, he doesn't know so-so much about his assets, even though he's very confident that his think tank won't eat the crawling hole in him, but he has to keep it in his heart.
“By the way, just in time for the adjustment, I continued to repurchase Starbucks shares, and my final thought was to complete my ownership of more than 50 percent of Starbucks shares, with total control, and I value Starbucks' future very much. ”
“The repurchase of Starbucks shares has not ceased. I handed it over to Budstone, after all, they could use a short line operation to launder, control the suction price well, avoid too much BO movement in the share price, and cause some unnecessary trouble.” Alvitelli reports.
Andy nodded and silenced, looking seriously at Al, and said, "Al, what do you think of the retail industry? Supermarkets, convenience stores. ”
Hearing his boss ask the industry, Alvitelli frowned and began to think quickly, Andy was not anxious to interrupt the speech, but waited quietly for his answer.
“The retail industry is very competitive, especially with low entry thresholds. So, tens of millions of retailers, not many are really profitable. In particular, the rise of e-commerce has had a huge impact on the traditional retail industry, with the third largest retailer in the United States, Sears, a large department store chain, J.C. Penney, and Macy's Department Store, all hit by the financial crisis. Corresponding to this is the rapid development of the e-commerce giant Amazon.
Against the backdrop of e-commerce shocks and the transformation of traditional retail stores, I do not think that entering the retail industry can bring much benefit to the owners, but rather it can be a bit uncompensable to relax funds, time and energy due to more intense market competition. After all, retail is not a profitable industry in the short term. ”
Hearing Al's analysis and dissenting suggestions, Andy's expression on his face did not change much and seemed to have long been prepared to guess Al's attitude on the matter.
In fact, entering the retail business, which he had already had when he stayed in the foot pot, the 7-11 store was constantly flourishing, it really made him a little red. Although the memory of the previous life stayed in the greatest period of e-commerce, as his eyes and insights grew, he also had a slightly different idea.
This is the prosperity phase of Internet e-commerce, then it will usher in the era of mobile Internet, and the online + offline model is bound to be the big trend in the future, and offline sales must return.
In fact, this is a necessity for business development. When the e-commerce industry breaks away from the barbaric era and starts to develop steadily, and competition among e-commerce enterprises tends to normalize, the e-commerce market will inevitably become partially saturated. The most immediate impact of e-commerce market saturation is the decline in market profitability, combined with increased consumer willingness and offline profitability, which will also make offline sales a general trend.
In fact, the retail industry has not changed in essence so far, the new and old retail share is actually the carrier of retail, the object of retail is constantly evolving.
To put it bluntly, the online and offline E-commerce model relies mainly on price and traffic dividends. Traffic costs have dropped dramatically with the huge Internet demographic dividend, and online platforms have sacrificed gross profit to grab users. But over time, when both businesses and consumers become saturated, the dividend on traffic disappears. And the cost and gross profit of online e-commerce are not much different from offline shops. When the price of online and offline is about the same, when the e-commerce advantage is no longer available, humans will again dominate the personally completed trading experience.
Don't blow anything from precision recommendation to user analysis, what Internet thinking is operating e-commerce, armed with data, to be honest, when the price is the same, nothing is useful, nothing is worth the data, when the price is about, offline experience consumption is the most fundamental familiar consumption mode, instead of cumbersome waiting, unknown product quality, troublesome returns and exchanges, people will be more willing to see and feel more happy with the products they can touch!
Of course, everything presupposes little discrepancy in price.
Cost and efficiency are at the heart of the retail industry. When the cost of going online and going offline reaches the same starting line, the days are sad when all means are exhausted offline to boost efficiency.
Well, it's still a little far to go, it takes at least ten to fifteen years to return offline sales. After all, there is a mobile connectivity era that has only just begun. The cold winter of offline sales is the current reality. In macro terms, the current retail industry is also quite disappointing, with global physical stores experiencing a tide of bo and bo closing.
“The stock market investment ratio that the think tank originally came up with was more than 3% good market and more than 1% Wal-Mart. Wal-Mart, I understand, is after all the largest retailer in the United States, this good market, and the introduction was that it relies on membership fees to make money, and the difference between selling goods can be very low, and even some goods can be sold at a loss mindset. Right?” Andy asked looking at Alvitelli.
“Yes, Good City is the world's largest chain of member warehouse mass merchants. It has also become the third-largest retailer in the United States this year, featuring high-quality merchandise at low prices and fewer merchandise items than its peers, while charging its members an annual fee.
Many good cities initially provided services only to small businesses, but later found that offering services to individual members of some non-businesses on an optional basis would bring greater benefits to the company.
Today, Hao Shi operates more than 452 outlets around the world in seven countries. Undoubtedly, Hao Shi is already a leader in warehousing and wholesale outlets.
And what our think tank values is that membership is the foundation of all the business logic of a good city. Whether to support operations with membership fees or reduce costs with large procurement volumes, it takes a long process to accumulate members and cultivate brands. A large and highly loyal membership group is the strongest barrier in many good cities.
That's why we decided to recommend buying its shares to the boss, and it has a lot of room to grow... “
“Then acquire it!” Andy's eyes were bright and his eyes became sharp and sudden.