Chapter 806 - 805: Means and Ends
Huang Shengjie bowed his head in thought, continuing to delve further along this line of reasoning.
"In other words... Qin Cheng must have made a prior judgment, assuming that there could be several different scenarios.
"The first scenario is that he considers the probability to be average, but the highest gain: If all goes well, Lu Bingjun would receive a disproportionate voting pattern, with only Yao Yuan casting a ’not guilty’ vote.
"In this case, Qin Cheng decisively arranged for another ’not guilty’ vote, which not only does not change the result of Lu Bingjun’s expulsion but also maximizes the probability of Yao Yuan’s death.
"The second scenario is that the voting pattern remains unchanged, but Qin Cheng did not arrange an extra ’not guilty’ vote.
"Then, when everyone votes on Yao Yuan, as long as one person softens and switches to a ’not guilty’ vote, Yao Yuan would not die.
"For Qin Cheng, this scenario is absolutely unacceptable. He would have missed a great opportunity and left endless troubles for himself.
"The third scenario is that Lu Bingjun directly receives three or more ’not guilty’ votes, and despite Qin Cheng’s efforts, Lu Bingjun would not be expelled.
"In that case, Qin Cheng would no longer need to continue accusing Yao Yuan, nor would he need to expose his identity as the Imitator.
"If he is expelled from the community due to false accusations, it wouldn’t be a bad outcome. After all, if he moves to a new community, he still has a great chance to make a comeback and can later take revenge under his identity as the Imitator;
"If he is not expelled from the community...
"This scenario is the most dangerous, but Qin Cheng, being the Imitator, might not lose, because after this incident, Lu Bingjun’s prestige would still be severely damaged.
"Both sides could only determine the winner through designing a game.
"The fourth scenario is also the worst scenario: Lu Bingjun gets two ’not guilty’ votes, plus the one arranged by Qin Cheng, making exactly three votes.
"It switches from ’expulsion’ to ’safe and sound.’
"But there’s no need to regret this scenario because it means Lu Bingjun has another ardent supporter besides Yao Yuan, and it also means Qin Cheng can no longer kill Yao Yuan.
"In this situation, Qin Cheng might also adopt the handling described in the third scenario.
"So, upon comprehensive consideration, ’giving Lu Bingjun an extra ’not guilty’ vote’ is the better choice."
This conclusion surprised even Huang Shengjie himself.
But after going through it again, he found it quite reasonable and without problems.
So he continued analyzing.
"Therefore, reserving different times for Lu Bingjun and Yao Yuan is also a strategy that Qin Cheng planned in advance.
"Judging from the people’s popularity in the community, Lu Bingjun is less liked than Yao Yuan, and after the ’Repentance Poker’ analysis, the impact on Lu Bingjun is even greater.
"Therefore, when accusing Lu Bingjun, what Qin Cheng needed to do was to act swiftly and decisively, forcing everyone to vote in a rush.
"Because his power would peak the moment he inherits Wei Changfeng’s political legacy, and Lu Bingjun’s reputation would be at its lowest.
"Only by voting immediately would Qin Cheng hold the greatest advantage.
"Once it drags on too long, and everyone calms down, unforeseen changes might occur.
"But accusing Yao Yuan is a completely different scenario.
"Looking at the image within the community, Yao Yuan was more likely to get votes from neutral players, and the guilt of ’Repentance Poker’ cannot be fully attributed to him.
"Although Qin Cheng was trying his best to align Yao Yuan’s image with that of the Imitator, it was still difficult to conclude with certainty without substantial evidence.
"If voting was rushed, many players might vote ’not guilty’ out of sympathy for Yao Yuan, and in that case, Qin Cheng’s plan would fail completely.
"So Qin Cheng deliberately extended the time, allowing everyone to repeatedly consider the stakes, while preparing a ’trump card’ for Yao Yuan at the right moment.
"In hindsight, during this phase, Qin Cheng must have also made some arrangements.
"Firstly, time. If Yao Yuan took too long to think because of ample time, then his behavior itself would pose significant suspicion.
"Yao Yuan did not fall for this and reacted quickly; everything seemed normal.
"But the key point followed, where Yao Yuan had only a few choices:
"First, admit voluntarily that he is the Imitator.
"If he dared to admit, then he would surely lose. In that case, Qin Cheng wouldn’t even need to admit his identity as the Imitator, but simply use Yao Yuan’s Imitator identity to seal the fate.
"Because no one would believe that Yao Yuan could be a benevolent Imitator.
"Second, completely deny any guilt.
"But this wouldn’t be wise either, as everyone suspected that Yao Yuan had at least some issues, especially since his purposes in promoting agendas and engaging in politics within the community were far from pure.
"Completely denying any mistakes could result in even more severe consequences.
"So Yao Yuan could only choose the third option, which was to admit only to the trivial parts while portraying himself as a forced accomplice to Lu Bingjun carrying out the dirty work, hoping that this would lead to a lighter sentence from everyone.
"As long as he could garner an extra one or two ’not guilty’ votes, his objective would be achieved.
"Standing from his standpoint at the time, indeed, this was Yao Yuan’s optimal solution.
"But this method of defense could not produce much content, so even if Qin Cheng left a long period, Yao Yuan couldn’t turn time to his advantage.
𝒇𝓻𝓮𝓮𝙬𝙚𝒃𝒏𝓸𝙫𝒆𝙡.𝓬𝓸𝒎
"Rather, it worked against Yao Yuan.
"So... on the surface, Yao Yuan wasted time, failing to provide any rebuttal to turn the situation, but in reality, Qin Cheng had already blocked all his paths for argument.
"However, there’s one thing I don’t quite understand: when Qin Cheng left the hall, he didn’t hear how Yao Yuan defended himself; was he purely relying on guessing?"
Lin Sizhi shook her head, "Of course, there was no need to guess.
"When Qin Cheng returned to the hall, he just needed to slightly observe the expressions of others to understand which method of defense Yao Yuan used specifically."
Huang Shengjie suddenly realized, "Exactly.
"If everyone in the hall looked astonished, it would mean Yao Yuan confessed to being the Imitator;
"If everyone had furrowed brows with anger, it would show Yao Yuan insisted on his innocence, resisting the judgment;
"If everyone’s expressions were tangled and hesitant, just like in reality, it would indicate that Yao Yuan chose the third option, which appeared to be the safest choice from the standpoint at the time.
"Once Qin Cheng confirmed this, he finally threw out the prepared trump card, revealing his identity as the Imitator."
Huang Shengjie furrowed his brow, continuing to deduce:
"Qin Cheng revealing his identity as the Imitator was surely a premeditated strategy.
"At first glance, this behavior seems extremely risky, but it is precisely his greatest advantage over Yao Yuan.
"Only by playing such a high-level card could he truly deliver the final blow."