Hollywood Hunter

While "Rola Run" and "Butterfly Effect" are still hot, Disney announced the next day that it will launch a cooperation with Daenerys Pictures on "When Harry Meets Sally". News.

Daenerys Pictures.

Although he was dissatisfied with Simon’s promise of Disney’s $6 million guaranteed commission, due to the agreement that the project release in the contract was completely led by Daenerys, the head of handicrafts, Dennis O’Brien, could only grumble. Some.

After several days of consultations, May 5th, Daenerys Pictures officially signed a distribution contract with Disney for "When Harry Meets Sally".

Finalizing the release of "When Harry Meets Sally", Daenerys Pictures only needs to concentrate on the production of the three films, and Simon also began to turn part of his energy to another of his plans.

Wednesday, May 6.

In the apartment of Century Mansion, Simon did not go out this morning.

For the sake of confidentiality, the two managers of Lehman Brothers personally went to the office to handle the futures account opening procedures for him.

Near 11 o'clock, Jeff Robertson, senior vice president of Lehman Brothers, re-examined the various formalities and carefully collected some documents into his briefcase. Then he got up and said to Simon: "Mr. Westeros , The next thing, you can contact Noah directly. Of course, if there is any need for help, you can also call me at any time."

Simon politely shook hands with Jeff Robertson and sent the other person out of the door, only to look at the white man in his thirties who was left beside him.The man is about the size of Simon, with brown hair and a clean face, wearing a meticulous white shirt and black trousers.

This is the classmate that Janet introduced to Simon, named Noah Scott, who is currently serving as the vice president of Lehman Brothers Chicago branch, mainly responsible for the business of commodity futures.

In order to sign Simon as a big client, Noah Scott deliberately came over from Chicago.

The two sat down on the sofa in the living room again. Simon looked at the youth on the opposite side and tentatively said: "Noah, if I guess right, you and Jenny are not the same session, are you?"

Noah Scott shook his head and looked at Simon as well, saying: "It's a pity, Simon, Jenny and I are still in the same class."

Simon raised his eyebrows slightly and said, "So, you should be more powerful than I thought."

If you are the same as Janet, Noah Scott may be only 27 years old this year.At the age of 27, he became the vice president of Lehman Brothers, which was somewhat beyond Simon's expectations.

The investment banking system is different from other companies.

In the early stages of investment bank development, in order to maintain an equal position with corporate executives during business negotiations, investment banks have successively named employees as managing directors, executive general managers, senior vice presidents, vice presidents, assistant vice presidents, etc. The title was later retained.

Therefore, on Wall Street, a slightly larger investment bank usually has hundreds of vice presidents.

However, this by no means means how easy it is to become a vice president of an established investment bank such as Lehman Brothers. A good business school graduate joins an investment bank, from the bottom-level analyst to assistant vice president to vice president. Under normal circumstances, it is basically impossible not to stay up for seven or eight years.

Faced with Simon's surprise, Noah Scott was very calm and said: "Actually, Simon, my father is a senior member of the Express company. Of course, I am also confident enough to be competent for the current position. Your funds are put in I am very safe here. So, what are you going to do next?"

Simon vaguely remembered that the company seemed to have acquired Lehman Brothers a few years ago, and this memory is not too detailed.However, Simon also knows that although the elite in the large investment banks are everywhere, they are also full of various relationship households.

Out of trust in Janet, Simon did not struggle with this.

However, hearing the other party's questions, Simon did not intend to share his plans with Noah Scott and Pan.

"Noah, this afternoon there will be $75 million into Westeros’ account. Back to Chicago, all you need to do is to buy 1,000 S&P 500 index futures in the last two days of the week. September long contract."

Noah Scott nodded slightly and asked, "What then?"

Simon succinctly said: "Wait. Wait for my next instruction."

Noah Scott thought about it and tried again: "Simon, do you want to be a long-term?"

"Perhaps," Simon replied noncommittally, looking at the opposite youth, and said, "Noah, you need to understand that I don't need investment advice. My request is simple, I said, you do."

Noah Scott felt Simon's sharp eyes instantly, shrugged after a moment, and slightly changed a posture on the sofa, saying: "Of course, Simon, the customer is God. However, you don't seem to trust me too much. "

Simon asked: "If we switch places, will you trust me the first time you meet?"

"If I were 19 years old, I might believe," Noah Scott said with some sarcasm, but then said: "Since this, Simon, in terms of business, maybe we don't have much to talk about. . So, can you tell me how you caught up with Jenny? At that time, many of us tried to pursue her, but all failed."

Simon didn’t want to talk too much about his and Janet’s privacy, but just shook his head and got up and said: “Sorry, Noah, I can’t invite you to lunch today, maybe there will be a chance in the future.”

Noah Scott didn't get entangled, got up and shook hands with Simon, said: "I look forward to the trust between us will increase next time we meet."

After sending Noah Scott away, Simon found a recent chart of the S&P 500 index on the coffee table in the living room and came to the study.

Standing in front of the large white writing board near the study wall, Simon raised his hand to the S&P 500 index chart as of yesterday, and compared another S&P 500 trend curve drawn on the writing board with memory.

In order to avoid disturbing memory, Simon has not paid attention to the recent stock index curves before today.But at this time, the S&P 500 curve before May 6, 1987 in his hand basically coincided with another curve before the relevant time node on the tablet.

Well, the memory is clearly not wrong.

Simon is basically relieved. Although he has his own "butterfly", he does not feel that the S&P 500 futures market with a daily turnover of more than 1 billion US dollars will be too seriously interfered.

According to the data accumulated during this period, Simon found that in 1987, it was completely a'bare era' of stock index futures trading.This era is full of opportunities, and there are also countless pitfalls, it can make people rich overnight, but also enough to make people instantly bankrupt.

Unlike commodity futures that have been developed for more than a century, the world's first stock index futures only appeared in the United States in 1982, that is, five years ago.

In 1982, it happened to be the beginning of a new round of US stock bull market.

Since 1982, the Dow Jones index, which measures the most important stock market in the United States, has risen from 800 points to the recent 2300 points. Simon also knows that in the next few months, the Dow Jones index will peak above 2700 points.

The vigorous development of the stock market has easily covered up various shortcomings in stock index futures trading.

Anyone who has a little knowledge of futures probably knows that stock index futures have daily price limit rules, fuse mechanisms, no-debt settlement, position limits, and other trading rules to protect the market.

however.

Now in 1987, none of these are available.

Dow Jones index futures have not yet been launched. Taking the mainstream S&P 500 index futures currently on the market, the trading process of stock index futures is actually very simple.

The recent S&P 500 index is around 270 points, and the S&P 500 in Simon's memory peaked above 330 points at the end of August.

Then.

For example, according to the integer of 300 points of the S&P 500 index:

Every stock index future has a'contract multiplier'. Later the S&P 500 index futures'contract multiplier' was $250, but now it is $500.

Therefore, the actual value of each S&P 500 index futures contract is'index points' multiplied by'contract multiplier', which is $150,000.However, futures speculators only need to pay a 10% deposit to buy a contract, which is $15,000.

Next, every 1 point increase or decrease of the S&P 500 index means a profit and loss of $500 per contract.

$500 may not seem like much, but if multiplied by 10,000 contracts, the profit and loss represented by every 1 point change in the index will expand to $5 million.

Calculated on the basis of a deposit of 15,000 USD per contract, 10,000 contracts require a deposit of 150 million USD.So, on the surface, the profit and loss of $5 million is still not a big deal.

From 1982 to the present, the stock market in North America has been showing a very stable upward trend, with few dramatic fluctuations.Because of this relatively flat market situation, the “minimum price change” of the S&P 500 index contract is actually 0.1 point.

In the past five years, the federal regulatory authorities have not imposed any restrictions on the stock index futures market because they have not experienced much change.

No price limit rules, no fuse mechanism, no daily debt-free settlement system, no position limit...

then.

When the crash of October 19, 1987 occurred, disaster came.

In Simon's memory, on October 19, the S&P 500 index jumped from 281 points at the close of the previous Friday to below 200 points.

80 points drop.

what does this mean.

It is still calculated according to 10,000 contracts.

If someone wrongly establishes 10,000 long contracts at 281 points on the day of October 16, the total margin is about 140 million US dollars.On October 19th, his loss for each contract will be $500 multiplied by 80 points, or $40,000.

10,000 long contracts, each contract loss of 40,000 US dollars, the overall loss will reach 400 million US dollars.Compared with the US$140 million margin, the loss ratio is close to 300%.

Actually.

In the stock market crash of 1987, there was indeed such an unlucky guy who mistakenly bet on a huge number of long contracts. That person's name was George Soros. Later, the financial predator suffered a huge loss of $800 million.

As a result, the Quantum Fund, whose net asset value just exceeded $3 billion that year, shrank by more than a quarter in just a few days.

right now.

Apartment in Century Building.

Simon looked at the S&P 500 index on the study board until the end of August. His fingertips felt a little numb because of the plans to be implemented in the next few months.

In front of the curve.

From 270 in early May to 330 at the end of August.The overall rise of 60 points, the fluctuation range is no less than a stock market disaster.With a 60-point increase, each long contract can make a profit of $30,000.The profit margin is sufficient to exceed 200%.

Shocked September.

Avoid.

October 19.

281 points to 200 points, a drop of 80 points, the real stock market crash.

Soros has a famous theory of reflexivity. In short, unpredictable interactions between market participants and markets occur all the time.

Simon naturally considered that his addition of this'butterfly' would change the original market trend.

but.

Counting all the expected chips, he now only has more than 100 million US dollars.

If you really lose, then you lose.

Just start all over again.

but.

If you win.

On the journey to the top of the pyramid, Simon will climb too many steps at once.