Reborn multinational giant

Although Huizhong’s gambling agreement to be listed at the end of this year has long been a well-known matter in the industry, when Huizhong officially announced the launch of the listing, it still made a sensation in the global Internet industry like a bomb.

Since the birth of Huizhong, in just five years, it has grown from an unknown small Chinese company to a multinational company with users all over the world. Today, Huizhong’s core product WeChat has more than 1 billion users, and no one doubts this anymore. No one doubts the company’s future development potential anymore!

Not only that, Huizhong is also the first multinational Internet company to emerge from China, and it is also the world's first multinational Internet company that truly achieves both East and West. In the words of many investment bank analysts, as long as there is intelligence Where there are mobile phones, there are WeChat users!

Now Huizhong has launched a listing amidst all the attention and expectations. From the Internet industry to the financial industry, to all kinds of WeChat users who have acted as eateries, there is a lot of discussion about this.

"Huizhong has finally started to go public? Just to help us find the way first!" Arima always showed a calm expression when he heard the news. In fact, he didn't even notice him. He talked to the secretary reporting the news. , With a hint of envy and jealousy in his tone.

Now that Huizhong has started to go public, Alima is both happy and worried. What is happy is that Huizhong went to the US to go public before Alibaba. It happens to be based on the performance of Huizhong's listing to look at the US stock market in the past two years.

We must know that since the financial crisis, the Chinese concept stocks in the United States have basically fallen again and again. It is bleak. Like Tudou, which was merged with Youku before, its share price fell by 50% within one year after its listing in the United States. Otherwise, it would not be easy to accept The fate of Youku merger.

Companies such as 360 and Perfect World are considering privatization and delisting from the United States, returning to domestic A shares to harvest leeks.

And Mr. Ma’s worry is that if Huizhong’s current scale to go public in the United States will inevitably achieve the effect of whales, suck a lot of funds from the stock market, and may even set the world’s largest IPO in history. Alibaba, which was listed after the public, is less gimmick and fancy.

Compared with Mr. Ma’s mixed feelings, colleagues from other Internet companies at home and abroad have a clearer mood, such as Mr. Ma of Tencent, senior executives of overseas mysapce, declining Facebook executives and others who have a competitive relationship with Huizhong. The mood of the colleagues is naturally not much better.

On the other hand, "Huizhong" companies like Xiaomi, Sina, Kuaian, Meituan, Are you hungry, twitter, valve, etc. that have investment relationships or business partnerships with Huizhong are naturally happy, and Huizhong is already there. The leaders of the company, if Huizhong's listing can be a complete success, then the prospects of these companies will naturally be bright.

What made Baidu, NetEase and many other domestic Internet companies listed on the US stock market unexpectedly was that Huizhong’s announcement of the launch of the listing caused all the Chinese concept stocks in the US stocks to rise. The stock price of a company like Sina that has Huizhong investment It directly rose by nearly 10%, which brought Sina CEO Cao Zongle's mouth to ear.

If Huizhong bought a stake in Sina Weibo, a subsidiary of Sina Weibo, and directly gave Sina Weibo a CEO Wang Gaofei, it still made Mr. Cao a little bit in his heart.

But since Wang Gaofei took over Sina Weibo, Sina Weibo has a second spring, and various data are rising. The knot in Mr. Cao's heart has gradually disappeared. Now Huizhong only announced the news of launching the listing, which made Sina's share price rise. Nearly 10%, it makes President Cao feel better, this thigh is too right!

Compared with peers in the Internet industry who only express their sighs and emotions orally, financial analysts from Wall Street to major investment banks around the world, stock analysts and even financial interns from Harvard are rushing to publish various analyses. The text joins in the fun. Of course, these capitalist minions are most concerned about only two pieces of information, the valuation of Huizhong's listing and the scale of fundraising.

What is Huizhong's valuation?How should Huizhong's valuation be calculated?

Not to mention the analysts around the world who write reports by collecting all kinds of scattered information about Huizhong, it is the listing team composed of six major investment banks and various top elites in the industry, and it is quite a headache for Huizhong.

From Huizhong’s core business, WeChat social networking, games, cloud computing, to financial services such as WeChat payment, and pan-entertainment services in various entertainment fields such as film and television, music, and novels.

Then to AutoNavi Map, 91 Assistant, Clean Master, Happy Input Method, Happy Browser and other independent mobile application matrix with hundreds of millions of users.

And finally, the most complicated investment in various companies from all walks of life around the world such as Xiaomi, JD.com, Meituan, Are you hungry, Kuaian, Sina, Twitter, Airbnb, and Tesla.

With such a large and complex business scale, if you want to calculate Huizhong's valuation clearly, you must first count the valuations of Huizhong Investment and various companies associated with Huizhong.

Of course, the various multinational companies in the world are more complex and larger than Huizhong’s business. Therefore, on the one hand, it is estimated based on the split of Huizhong’s core business and on the other hand based on revenue, profit and different businesses. It is also one of the commonly used valuation algorithms in the industry.

As an unlisted company, Huizhong does not need to publish financial reports. Therefore, various analysts with great powers can only estimate the foreign exchange through the financial reports of listed companies connected with Huizhong and various information published by Huizhong in the past. Public valuation.

The first is Huizhong's core business, WeChat.Since the valuation of WeChat in Huizhong’s A round of financing exceeded US$10 billion three years ago, the industry has had a simple and rude algorithm for the valuation of WeChat. The total number of WeChat users * the value of each user, more than a month ago, WeChat The news that the total number of global users exceeded 1 billion shocked the world.

After three years of development, WeChat, from the initial simple chat software to the subscription of the official account, started the global mobile payment trend of WeChat payment, and opened up the secondary game menu with Huizhong’s game business. In e-commerce platforms such as Tmall, each time WeChat introduces a new function, its user value continues to rise.

Nowadays, the industry generally believes that the value of each user of WeChat has more than doubled from about US$70 three years ago to about US$150. In the future, as WeChat will continue to introduce new features and various ecosystems around WeChat With continuous expansion, the user value of WeChat is still rising.

With a simple calculation, the valuation of WeChat alone is more than US$150 billion.

Next, we will calculate Huizhong’s game business and cloud computing business. Three years ago, Huizhong’s valuation without WeChat was as high as 35 billion U.S. dollars, and the components of these valuations basically came from Huizhong’s game business. Cloud computing and independent application matrix.

Now that three years have passed, Huizhong’s game business needless to say, from steam on the end game platform to Zhongle on the web game platform, to the mobile game business started by Huizhong. Huizhong is in these three game sub-fields. They are firmly in control of the number one position in the world.

The revenue of Huizhong’s game business has accounted for one-half of the domestic game market and more than one-quarter of the global game market. With the continuous outbreak of the global mobile Internet, Huizhong continues to create explosives and has many IPs. The game business is still growing rapidly.

According to industry rumors, the net profit of Huizhong’s game business last year reached more than 30 billion yuan. According to the valuation of the game industry’s 15-20 times price-earnings ratio, the valuation of Huizhong’s game business alone was nearly 100 billion US dollars.

Calculating cloud computing further, three years ago, Fang Zhe spent $1 billion to nurture the cloud computing business after the A round of financing, allowing Huizhong Cloud, which is already a domestic leader, to quickly widen the gap with its domestic competitor Alibaba Cloud.

At the same time, Huizhong relies on the strong publishing advantages of steam and 91 assistants in the field of games and mobile applications, as well as investing in a large number of small giants and unicorn companies with huge development potential. Now these companies have basically become Huizhong Cloud’s user.

Huizhong Cloud has been listed as the world's two largest cloud computing providers alongside Amazon Cloud. Even Microsoft Cloud, which frequently makes mistakes in mobile strategy and does not pay enough attention to office clouds, is Huizhong Cloud's defeat.

Nowadays, cloud computing has become a common term in the Internet industry at home and abroad. It is no longer like a few years ago. It is just a term popularized by Fang Zhe at the IT summit. If an Internet company’s business is not placed on the cloud, Then investors will doubt the company's business stability and technological leadership.

Last year, Huizhong Cloud’s global revenue exceeded US$3 billion, and its net profit exceeded US$500 million. If Huizhong Cloud is independent, the global cloud computing industry is currently hot and the price-earnings ratio is generally high. Its valuation is nearly 20 billion U.S. dollars.

In addition to the three core businesses of Huizhong, WeChat, games and cloud computing, Huizhong’s independent application matrix cannot be underestimated. The largest application distribution channel on the global Android mobile phone platform like 91 Assistant, even if it is independent, it The valuation of more than 5 billion US dollars.

You know, Baidu spent 1.9 billion U.S. dollars in the previous life just to buy 91 Assistant, which ranked first in the domestic application distribution field. According to 91 Assistant’s current market share at home and abroad, the valuation is only 5 billion U.S. dollars. Only low, not high.

Except for 91 assistants, others, whether it is AutoNavi Maps, Clean Master, Happy Input Method, etc., are basically nurtured by WeChat's huge traffic system, and have grown into independent applications with hundreds of millions of users. These applications add up at will, A valuation of more than ten billion dollars is appropriate.

After calculating these Huizhong’s core businesses, other businesses such as Huizhong’s investment and shareholding will be packaged and calculated separately.

Companies like investing in Xiaomi are attributable to the hardware business, investing in Tmall Jingdong, attributing to e-commerce business, investing in Meituan, Ele., Uber, attributing to O2O business, investing in Sina, twitter, attributing to new The media business, the acquisition and reorganization of the Huiwen Group, and the investment in Youku Tudou are classified as entertainment businesses. After all these businesses are counted, the final overall valuation is US$60 billion.

Based on the future potential of these investment companies, the valuation of 60 billion US dollars is somewhat low, but the stock market has always looked at profit first and then potential. These companies invested by Huizhong either have not yet been listed or are still making losses.

Although everyone knows that they have great potential, before these potentials are transformed into real money, only leeks are willing to pay for them, and US stocks have always been a market that is more rational than crazy. Once a listed company's Earnings are not good, and stocks falling by 10% are common.

So in the end, Huizhong's approximate valuation fell at around US$350 billion!

With 350 billion U.S. dollars, when global financial analysts, stock analysts, and major investment banks announced their calculation results, the global Internet industry and financial industry, as well as Internet users who eat melons, are boiling!