Red Alert Somalia

ps: Seven more!!

China's attitude towards Somalia has allowed Russia to see a posture of strategic shift and expand China's strategic survival space.At the same time, Russia is also very aware that the value of Somalia is not only in the energy sector and its influence in the northeast corner of Africa.

It can even touch the nerves of the United States. It is close to the Gulf of Aden, close to Saudi Arabia, and close to the Middle East to contain the Suez Canal.These existential values ​​are worth paying for a country that has a great need for strategy.

Although China did not issue a note to Russia in this regard, the leaders of the two countries did not make secret calls.But based on the tacit understanding of cooperation in international affairs over the years, Putin also asked the Ministry of Defense to express Russia's views on the matter.

The seemingly peaceful words actually show Russia's attitude on this matter. In addition, over the years, Russia's economy and military industry have experienced tremendous recovery and progress, and Putin has been trusted by the Russians with a tough posture.The United States can ignore China's statement, but it cannot ignore the attitude of the two countries standing together.

For Russia, Russia drags an India with its left hand and a China with its right hand.Almost the two largest developing countries in the world are cooperating with Russia.The US-European economy and Russia are not as close as China.After Putin came to power, he vigorously developed the national economy.And to combat the extreme inflation of individual privatization.Financial oligarchs and financial predators have been hit.In the national economy, Russia's oil trade and arms trade with China.Great progress has been made.However, for Russia, China still holds an annual trade surplus of approximately US$30-40 billion, while for India, India is a huge “profitable” market for Russia.

Africa is the most important financial and emerging human resource region for two countries and even the world, and the same is true for the United States.If you want to compete with the United States, currency is the top priority.

The history of the rise and fall of world currencies has condensed the experience and lessons of the financial rise and fall of such a big country: economic growth needs strong currency to ensure, economic fluctuations need strong currency to stabilize, economic recession needs strong currency to contain, the rise of a strong currency is often accompanied by hegemony The cruel suppression of currency, the stronger the oppression, the greater the strength of the rise and the corresponding expansion.

Since the Second World War, the world currency pattern has always been a situation in which the U.S. dollar dominates the world. Prior to this, the U.S. dollar was able to defeat the British pound to become the world currency, not only because of opportunities and strength, but also the United States adopted in different periods such as the Bretton Woods system and the Jamaican system. The flexible and reliable strategic management system is closely related.

Although the United States is currently facing serious debt problems and constant crises, it does not indicate that the world currency can be replaced. In fact, the core competitiveness of the US dollar has never been fundamentally shaken, and it is still in international settlement and international payments. As the main international payment method, most commodities, especially bulk products such as oil, grain, and heavy metals, are still priced in US dollars, and the US dollar accounts for more than 60 in international reserves.(The modern wars launched by the United States were all directed at the U.S. dollar! In the future, if we talk about U.S. global strategy, I will talk about it.)

The euro can only be combined but not replaced.First of all, the birth and rise of the euro took 50 years of hard work in Europe. As an important event that affected the world in the 20th century, it was saturated with the hard work of many EU politicians and thinkers. Since the establishment of the euro zone, Europe The people have enjoyed tremendous political and economic benefits. Although economic integration is currently facing the obstacles of the European debt crisis, the euro area does not have a huge international sovereign debt market like the US Treasury bonds as the basis and cannot replace the US dollar. The establishment of the euro has given stability and flexibility to the international monetary system. The euro zone may contract in an orderly manner in the future, but it will not suffer the most fundamental challenge of disintegration, and it will eventually become a strong currency.

Secondly, the vast majority of the banking systems of the BRICS countries have become a chain in the global arbitrage trading system. Once the euro plummets, it will trigger a huge amount of arbitrage capital to return home, which will have a serious impact on the monetary systems of the BRICS countries.

If China can stabilize the euro, it is equivalent to controlling the rise of the US dollar, and indirectly also stabilizing China's financial asset prices. It will not only reduce the probability of financial instability, but also reduce the severity of future financial turbulence and resist the destruction of asset bubbles. Sex.

The European and American GDP accounts for 40 of the world's total. There is no doubt that the euro and the US dollar are the two poles of the future multi-polar world monetary system.Others, such as the yen, have been unable to obtain large pricing power in international trade after ten years of loss.Shadow currencies such as the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and Swiss franc have relatively small economic aggregates, poor military strength and strong political dependence.Although the Russian ruble has ambitions and strong local military strength, its integrity mechanism has serious problems. None of the above currencies can serve as a regional currency.

The current integration of the Chinese and European economies has come to an end. In the future, Chinese financial institutions will also face severe strategic choices in the direction of international business expansion.

Therefore, the primary goal of the internationalization of China's financial industry and the internationalization of the RMB should be to become an international currency in Asia and Africa.The region is firstly positioned to complement each other in the traditional economic structure. Modern trade and investment are developing rapidly, and the demand for RMB is large. It is urgent to establish a stable international or regional payment and settlement that will help the integration of the Chinese economy with these emerging economies. system.

Of course, the birth of the new renminbi pattern requires extremely strong forces to resist hegemony and establish a world system suitable for its own development. It cannot fight against two powerful currencies at the same time, let alone attack from all sides, commit the mistakes of sovereign funds, and become arbitrage. Dim sum of capital beasts.

Otherwise, once the European debt crisis subsides and the US dollar reverses, the RMB or the Hong Kong dollar will soon become the next target of speculative capital attacks.Hegemony arises from regional conservation and declines into global expansion. The U.S. dollar, as the international benchmark currency, is the only bottom-line bargaining chip for the United States to bear the current high debt. Whoever shakes the U.S. dollar’s ​​status is robbing the hegemonic debt resources and will surely receive targeted blows. In war, the United States has never resorted to tactics at this point.

Since the Lehman crisis and the financial tsunami, the international role of the U.S. dollar has long been separated from the development of the U.S. domestic economy. The U.S. dollar will continue to repeat major crises and recessions. Objectively, China’s peg to the U.S. dollar exchange rate mechanism has lost its advantage and may become a disaster guide at any time. Fuse, the key to solving this problem is to quickly change from a passive defender to an attacker, and use the regionalized international currency model to accelerate the internationalization of the RMB and promote the reconstruction of the international currency system, rather than waiting for the completion of the dollar shearing strategy , It will face a more serious crisis and internal and external difficulties.

In the recognition of Chinese senior officials, Africa should become one of the bases for the internationalization of the renminbi. The structure and development of the renminbi market in Africa is the key to the success or failure of the internationalization of the renminbi.

The reason is that Africa is a new growth point for the world economy in the future. This has become the basic consensus of international capital. Africa is a huge resource center, and its infrastructure is basically in its original state. The demand is very huge, and it is the region with the most potential for the demand for RMB. .

Although China and Africa are separated by thousands of mountains and rivers, friendship and cooperation have a long history. Over the past 60 years, China’s foreign aid totaled 39.26 billion U.S. dollars, of which aid to Africa accounted for more than half. In 2012, China-Africa trade volume was 226.9 billion U.S. dollars. Africa's largest trading partner.The resources and markets of my country and Africa are highly complementary. Africa’s advantageous resources are scarce in China, and my country’s products and technologies have comparative advantages in Africa, which are very suitable for local needs in Africa. This is a solid foundation for China-Africa cooperation.

The biggest risk in the African market is social risk, not political risk. The unemployment problem and the gap between rich and poor where investment projects are located are most worthy of attention.

All major countries are competing for Africa, and the geopolitical struggle is fierce.Africa is the only remaining market, resource, and political virgin land in the world, and it is a veritable strategic location.

For example, Africa is one of the three fulcrums of the US global strategy, as evidenced by the African Strategic Command.The Libyan war opened a strategic breakthrough for the United States to return to the African continent, and sent special forces directly into Uganda to fight against extremist organizations, along the Red Sea and the Golden Waterway of the Gulf of Aden, from Somalia to Kenya and Ethiopia to deploy special forces and unmanned fighter aircraft, and extend to The strategic passages of oil-producing countries in Central Africa such as Sudan and Chad all demonstrate the ambitions of the United States.

Now, a great opportunity lies before Zhonghua. Can Zhonghua not seize it?Russia came to intervene, and it also intends to unite with China to enjoy the great benefits of Africa in the future.Of course, the twists and turns of the interests here require closer talks between the senior leaders of both sides.

In the eyes of Russia, China has already taken the lead in this matter. In order to further deepen cooperation with China in Africa, Putin is very straightforward to cooperate with China.If China is willing to unite with Russia, the two countries will inevitably have many common methods in East Africa in the future.

In fact, there is no if. Africa is an emerging market, and countries all over the world are staring at it. In order to compete with the United States, the probability of China-Russia cooperation is very high.Furthermore, China also needs another powerful helper to break the US strategy and strive for its own strategic space.

This method can not only divert the attention of the United States, it can also make the United States' strategic eastward move to be disregarded.Imagine if there is a pro-China and pro-Russian government in Somalia, how much impact it will have on the United States.