Red Alert Somalia

To deal with new technological and economic transformation points, the responses that American economic policymakers and mainstream economists have made are concentrated in three aspects:

The first is tax reduction plus investment in military, investment in infrastructure, new technology

In order to cultivate its own motivation for corporate development, the Reagan administration carried out a large-scale tax cut for the first time in the history of the United States, abolished many strict controls on companies, ensured a relatively loose development environment for companies, and increased defense expenditures. , Implement the Star Wars plan to promote the vigorous development of domestic high-tech industries and manufacturing industries.{{Wx} In contrast, the Obama administration’s initiatives are more clear. While tax cuts, more funds are invested in infrastructure construction and new technology research and development.

In the current Hillary administration, the main energy began to focus on the latter two aspects.

In one aspect, the United States needs to attract more investors. In the transitional period, foreign investment plays a dual key role in the United States.

First, if you want to successfully achieve industrial upgrading, it means having a large amount of funds to take over the relatively backward industries and promote social employment, so that newly liberated resources can be deployed in emerging industries and lay the necessary foundation for the development of new technologies.

Second, the implementation of an expansionary fiscal policy during an economic recession will inevitably lead to a continuous increase in fiscal deficits. To avoid the leading role of the deficit on inflation, the deficit must be made up by selling national debt. Foreign funds are undoubtedly the main purchasing power.

During the Reagan era, the United States attracted investors mainly from Japan. On the one hand, it promulgated laws to encourage foreign investment, and on the other hand, it used various methods.Encourage Japanese companies to actively or passively invest in the United States.For example, after the United States required Japan to automatically restrict exports to the United States in 1981, major Japanese automobile companies circumvented the quota.All must choose to invest in factories in the United States to maintain their market share in the United States.

By the Obama administration, China* has become the largest creditor nation of the United States.The eyes of the Obama administration naturally turned to China.On the one hand, the United States has contributed to the outbreak and spread of the European debt crisis to a certain extent, fundamentally creating a situation where only U.S. Treasury bonds can be invested in one direction. On the other hand, it has raised trade barriers for Chinese goods exports to the United States. This will eventually lead to a substantial increase in the amount of China's investment in the United States to ensure the completion of the US industrial upgrade.

In this regard, Clinton only needs to continue the Obama administration’s policies to continue to complete the important transformational work of the United States, but it also requires the Clinton administration to maintain the relationship with China.

And the work that really needs the Hillary government to complete is the last one.That is a tough foreign policy. The reason why Hillary Clinton was elected as the new president of the United States is closely related to her consistent foreign policy.

In the case of domestic economic weakness and rapid changes in the international landscape, the US government still has to maintain the hegemony of the dollar and use all means to maximize its own interests. It must rely on military toughness to a certain extent.During the Cold War, the US government did not hesitate to have bad relations with the Western European Union countries in order to contain the Soviet Union's rising momentum. They believed that the Soviet Union would not take drastic measures to respond and unscrupulously imposed high-pressure military and economic sanctions on it.Caused the continuous deterioration of the domestic economic situation in the Soviet Union.

However, facing the rise of Somalia, the method used to deal with the Soviet Union in the past cannot be replicated, and the Hillary administration chose another path.Continue to maintain the dominant position of the dollar.That is to win over more countries, tie these countries with dollars and the economy, and supplement them with military strength.More and more countries cannot do without the United States.

For now, this approach of the Hillary administration is undoubtedly successful.India has become the most solid partner of the United States in just a few years.The United States invested a large amount of U.S. dollars in India to help India complete its industrial and infrastructure construction, while India bought a large amount of U.S. Treasury bonds and assumed American economic risks.

And in the military, India has also begun to rely on the United States. Although India now has its own shipbuilding industry, it still has too much technology and equipment to import from the United States. Even the computer industry that makes the Indian Ocean proud requires Americans. stand by.

Once the United States ceases its technical support to India, the so-called growing military industry in India will be completely stalled. The five aircraft carrier battle groups of the Indian Navy and the three Kitty Hawk class will probably be towed back to India by tugboat.

The reason why Obama assured India that both the technology and the aircraft carrier were given to India was that he aimed at the lifeblood of the Indians and firmly grasped the key points of all technologies, so that the Indians had to rely on the United States, otherwise the Indian industry would not be able to operate. The aircraft carrier can only stay in the port to rust.

And Indians who are getting used to becoming stronger are naturally not willing to return to the point where they all depended on the world at the beginning. Although they still depend on the United States, India can produce most of the other things.

It is also because of India and NATO that the United States can continue to maintain its current status as world hegemon. Of course, this is also inseparable from the rapid development of the United States itself. External toughness cannot be separated from military support, and wooing other countries is only an external force. A strong self is the guarantee for everything.

In six years, three supercarriers in Somalia joined the naval battle sequence, and the fourth supercarrier was about to be launched, and the United States did not lose much. In six years, all three Ford-class ships also completed the launch and started. In the next stage of preparations for the construction of the three aircraft carriers, the hull modules of the fourth Ford-class aircraft carrier have been produced and are in the assembly stage.

It can be said that the development of the light navy in the United States is only a bit slower than Somalia, and this is still the construction efficiency during non-war periods. Once the United States enters a state of full-scale war, it is fully capable of building a Ford-class aircraft carrier battle group in a year, or even more. fast.

However, in order to seek military advantage over Somalia, US military expenditures have now reached trillions of dollars. In addition to research expenses, the cost of directly purchasing military equipment has reached 400 billion dollars a year.

Such huge military expenditures put the Clinton administration under tremendous domestic pressure. Although the economic and technological transformation process was successful, it increased employment rates and new economic growth points. The United States still maintained the world’s largest military group and economy. title.However, trillions of military expenditures have also made this superpower feel immense pressure.

Just now the contradictions in the United States.Has reached a very dangerous situation, employment conflicts.The contradiction between the rich and the poor, tax contradictions, race contradictions, declining welfare... and a series of social problems brought about by the US government system have made the Clinton administration have to consider the adverse consequences of the arms race.

It must be said that the extreme asymmetry of Somalia's economic and military development has shown the possibility of the United States to completely bring down Somalia, but the facts further tell the United States that Somalia's military is developing rapidly, but there is no conflict with the domestic economy.There is a small vault behind Li Lan, and it is this mysterious small vault that supports the huge Somali army.

The United States has repeatedly estimated the limits of Li Lan's endurance, but the results have repeatedly miscalculated the United States, so that the United States has gradually become the country that has suffered the most in this arms race.

This is unacceptable to the United States. At the beginning, the United States successfully dragged down the Soviet Union by relying on an arms race. Now the United States is facing the dilemma of being dragged down. Clinton’s think tank has come to a very important conclusion. Somalia has been in foreign wars time after time. .It has not fundamentally damaged the vitality of the Somali army, but has strengthened it after wars.One more thing, they didn't even know the limits of Li Lan's endurance, so blindly carrying out arms development.It's not wise.

When it comes to the arms race, Americans are naturally very rich in experience. The United States and the Soviet Union have gone through the Cold War process for half a century.Finally ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union.Was the disintegration of the Soviet Union dragged down by an increasingly high-profile arms race?The answer should be yes.

Compared with Somalia today, the Soviet Union was actually even more difficult to deal with.In the 1970s, the Soviet economy showed an upward trend.The output of oil and steel surpassed that of the United States.But Brezhnev overestimated the situation.Taking advantage of the US strategic contraction, infiltrating the Middle East, Central America and Africa, and even sending troops to Afghanistan.The United States couldn't bear it, and finally quickly picked up the economic stick again. In 1979, it imposed a round of severe sanctions on the Soviet Union, including freezing about 155 million yuan in applications for exports of Soviet advanced technology, ending grain exports to the Soviet Union, and so on.When military and politics are not overwhelming, economic advantage is the weight to break the balance.The Soviet Union’s economic difficulties were too wide because of its wide front, especially the small war in Afghanistan, which caused the Soviet Union’s economy to lose too much blood. More than 40 billion were thrown in Afghanistan, and the injuries were not light.,

Military output and expansion have always been the developmental inevitable of the arms race.Power politics with force will never be satisfied with showing off muscles, but will have to toss to the point of severe kidney loss.Military expansion without strong economic support is bound to be short-lived.The disadvantages of economic development have been a long-standing disease in the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union’s military expenditure exceeds that of the United States. This means that the Soviet Union has launched a high-speed tank without brakes.The consequences of disregarding people's livelihood for a long time have also caused more and more political centrifugal psychology.

The lessons of the disintegration of the Soviet Union have shown the United States to the future crisis, the same huge military expenditures, the same huge domestic social contradictions, and the same unsatisfied muscles. The Iraq War was a bit of a sign of the Soviet Union’s collapse in Afghanistan. .

Fortunately, the United States now has a strong economic support that the Soviet Union did not have. Somalia is also unable to carry out a fatal economic blow to the United States. It also has many powerful allies who can share the pressure.This can be said to be capital that the United States can still sustain, but this kind of economic and military capital that overrides other countries is not used to squander the arms race.

The Clinton administration, which took over the power of the United States, naturally cannot allow the United States to embark on a path of no return, otherwise it will not need war to ruin the United States. The huge domestic and foreign conflicts are enough to destroy the United States that has dominated the world for nearly a century.

However, when the Americans began to think about ending or alleviating the arms race in this way, the United States suddenly realized that this arms race was not provoked by them at all from the beginning.

The United States has always wanted to maintain this military superiority and has to adopt measures to consolidate its military superiority to achieve military strategic superiority.In this arms race, the United States has to face it. Whether to stop the endless construction of military equipment, the source is in Somalia, not in the United States itself.

This also brings up a very important issue. The United States wants to end this arms race, but Li Lan has never stopped its development.There are only two options left to the United States. One is to refrain from fighting, and watch the military strategic advantage being captured by Somalia and implement a passive defense strategy.

Another option is to come to a war, a war that will completely end this endless arms race.This choice is in line with the usual law of military development. To put it simply, the development of armaments to the point of Somalia and the United States is no longer to satisfy the defense, but to satisfy the offense. Since offense is the ultimate goal, let this This offensive force was released.

As for how to choose, the United States has been studying for a long time. When Li Lan visited Iran and made the decision to send the aircraft carrier to Iran, it was equivalent to forcing the United States to make a decision.

The United States transferred the pressure to its allies, and Somalia is now doing the same, and the US advantage has been further weakened.What worries the United States the most is that in the past few years, Somalia is stepping up its contacts with South American countries, and Li Lan's diplomatic direction is rapidly tilting toward South America.If this development continues, the future advantage of the United States will become smaller and smaller.

Once all the advantages have begun to be lost, there is only one choice left to the United States, and that is no return.

Naturally, the United States will not go. Similar to the economic sanctions imposed on the Soviet Union, the United States cannot replicate its policy on Somalia. Strategic defense is not in line with the long-term development path of the United States. As a result, the United States has only one choice, releasing military pressure. And it can also transfer domestic conflicts.Moreover, in the face of increasingly complex international forms, the United States needs an opportunity to reshape the international system.

However, this does not mean that the United States has to personally participate in the new war.There are many opportunities before the United States. Somalia has such a huge threat today, mainly from one person, that is Li Lan.Somalia without Li Lan is equivalent to a beast in a cage. Although it still possesses powerful lethality, it no longer threatens the United States.

However, it is not a simple thing to keep this beast in a cage, and it may hurt yourself.It may even evolve into the fact that the United States itself faces the anger of the beast.

Opportunities and challenges coexist, Hillary made a choice very early, and all of this is coming soon.