Taoist Law
Junshan Notes: Forecast Analysis of Road Door Robility and In the next 100 Years
This article submitted in "Junshan Notes" May 4th Week, which is not related to the view of the friend of Junshan.
Author: Qi Resistance - Junshan Friends
(Part 1)
Limited to Zhao Rong Dao, the first mention of the first time, the first time to mention "credit" is a big victory after Jiajing's 20 years, and the Junshan Temple contributes 30,000 credits in Jiajing 19 years. After another mention, Sichuan Province has settled five thousand six million procurement in Jiajing's 19 years, and ninth place in the thirteen provinces of the two Beijing [2, 3]. Thereafter, it introduced the credibility of the victim, from the Taoistun 10,000 thousand Gui, to the seven thousand two million [4]. The first clear mention of the total national credit value is Jiajing 20 years, is 1.2 billion Gui [5]. From this, since Jiajing's 20 years to Jiajing, there is clearly specified the total credit income of the country [7-18]. The only exception is Jiajing for 24 years, and the eight treasures only gave the contribution of Daming of Daming, about 10 Gui [11]. According to Jiajing 20 years (15 million) [5], and the world's world's annual population growth rate (1.2%), launched Jiajing 24 people is $ 100 million, the national The credit revenue is 115 million. From Jiajing 20 to 28 years, the national credit revenue first increase (20-12 years), reducing (23 years, 24 years), and increased (after 25 years). Among them, the lowest in 24 years. If you throw it into Zhang Lao Road, it brings huge credits (53 million Gui), and the actual ability of 22 years is less than 21 years. However, Zhang Lao Daofei consumption is far greater than its forward income: total consumption of 5.4 billion credits, including 36 billion Hongqiao, 1.8 billion to 18 robbery [6].
According to the above hypothetical population growth rate, Daming in Jiajing 20 years to 28 years, the per capita has a minimum of 10,000 guarantees (24 years), up to 11.57 (28 years). Interestingly, in Jiajing 21 and 22 years, the per capita contribution has been 11.17 and 11.39, ranked fourth and second high in 9 years. The reason is that it may not be as follows from the three hometowns and the court because of each other. Per capita contribution credit began to grow in Jiajing in 25 years. The reason is probably the monk serves as a ten-way road.
Taking into account the restrictions on the population of environmental resources, it is assumed that Daming population will not exceed 10 million in the expected decades (this world has 24 years in 200 years, and Jiajing is 59 years). There are two ways to predict that Jiajing's 28 years of credit: 1. According to the external effect, it is predicted to growth in per capita credit; second, the national credit annual growth rate is developed by the general view.
For the first way, the average average per capita credit growth can be estimated from Jiajing 25 to 28 years. In the past four years, the growth rate is floating between 1.22% to 6.66%, with an average of 3.74%. However, per capita credit will not grow. According to Jiajing 20 years, the per capita credit in Xixia contributes 15 Gui and Tubo as above 22 [5]. Then limit the per capita credit contribution of Daming people, this limitation will reach Jiajing 35 years, meaning that the per capita credit will not grow from Jiajing 36 years; if the 22 Guigui is limited by Dubi 22 Then, in Jiajing in 45 years, it reaches the sunshable cap of per capita. For the first case, Daming's next inventory has reached 6 billion Kämowi to Jiajing 41 years, which is 19 years after Zhang Lao Road.
Note that this calculation method considers only 20% of credit revenue to enter the overall concept of fault pool, and the total view is still 1.2 billion yuan after the flight of Zhang Lao Road. The next time I can provide 6 billion Fuji, a 13th year of 54 years later. Since the population and per capita commitment will not grow, the total observation has reached a balance, which is 6 billion Guoying credits every 13 years. For the per capita credit for 22 kioli, the next flying time is in Jiajing 40 years, the 18th year after Zhang Lao Road; the next time interval is 10 and 9 years, and will be stable in 9 years. Therefore, the upper limit of the per capita credit will be increased from 15 Gui to 22 Gui, which will provide more flying chances (3 times, comparison 4 times) in 40 years after Zhang Lao Road. Considering that the Tangmen actually had a top monk, all the credits required (60 billion Guigui) will set up in the 100-year to 136 years after Zhang Lao Road.
The results are similar to the above discussion for the second method of developing a booster growth rate. The current annual increase in the development of credit is 5%, which is converted to per capita credit growth, which is 3.75%, very close to 3.74% per capita credit annual growth rate in the first program. This shows that the Taoist Treight is respectable to respect objective law.
This prediction only estimates the time required for one hundred years from the fundamental growth, and the actual situation has also received many factors, such as the age, flying rising sorting, and cultivation of the proofing road. Time, new promotion, etc. In a larger time scale, such as two hundred years and five hundred years, the number of monks will be affected by more factors, such as the number of orthodont dones and the success rate of orthodontics, the lack of resources, the struggle in the road, the battle of Buddhism, Confucianism The dispute, the empress of the empowerment and the doors, etc.
references:
1 Seventh volume, Chapter 55
2 Seventh Volume 66
3 Seventh Volume 67
4 Eightset Chapter 4
5 Volume 66
6 Volume 126
7 Volume 10, Chapter 54
8 Volume 10 Chapter 129
9 Volume 10 Chapter 130
10 Eleventh Chapter 27
11 Eleventh Volume Chapter 28
12 Event Volume 80
13 Chapter 11, Chapter 81
14 Chapter 11, Chapter 149
15 Chapter 12, Chapter 13
16 Chapter 12, Chapter 35
17 Chapter 12 Chapter 100
18 Chapter 12, Chapter 101
(Part 2)
In the newly revealed Doumen high-rise news in the Babao Wood, it has become an important factor in the development of the road, and it has determined that the development direction of the road in the next few decades is a hundred years of remembering and civil society. Absolute rule, or let go, find other flying channels other than credoction. Although the high-level high-rise of the Doumen is full of concerns (that is, 120 years later), according to the "Junshan Notes" May, the second week of the second week, the growth of the credit growth and the impact on the flying mutual rising There is a space worth studying. This article will continue to analyze before, and make more precise forecasts for the credit growth of hundreds of years, and the number of monks, especially the number of monks, especially the number of people's monks, and make pre-judgments.
Cyre prediction model
The foregoing mentioned, according to the 1.2% old population growth rate and 150 million upper limit estimates, if Daming's per capita, the annual credibility of Daming reached 22 Gui, it can stabilize the five-year flying opportunity after 30 years. In fact, the per capita credit value of 22 princes has long been reached in some areas of Daming. For example, Junshan Temple has reached 28 Gui-you have a credit contribution, and there is a 26 Gui [1]. Therefore, the goal of 22 Gui per capita credit contribution is not outless. In addition, the annual population growth rate seems to be predicted. According to the latest disclosure of the number of Dow Mun, the number of monks and population is basically constant (0.12%, Jiajing 18, 24, 30 years of statistics), can launch a population growth rate of about 18 years since Jiajing is about 0.6%, Half of the previous assumption value. Therefore, after the prediction of previous credit models, the next four flying rate intervals were 19 years, 10 years, 10 years, 9 years, and will stabilize in 9 years.
2. Flying Sorting and Prediction
Jiajing in 29 years, Ten Daoxing, the Taoist monk, according to the sequencing of the flying rising: Longyang Zu teacher, Shaoyuan Festival, Duanmu Chongqing, Tao Zhongwen, Tiezu Zhang Zhong, Fengling, Zhang Yunyi, Wang Changyu, Jiao Yuanjun, Pan Yuanjun (Rule lady). Another closed door shocks two, Zhang Yangming, Pan Tianshi. In the ten-position, Longyang Zu Shi and Shao Yuanjie were 247 years old; Tao Zhongwen was 210 years old, Jiao Yuanjun was 193 years old, and Xinjin Dao Pan Yuanjun is about 165 years old [3]. According to the new revised credit forecasting model, the total will have the ability to hit the flying in 19 years after the flight of Zhang Dadong, but Longyang Zu Shi has to wait for two years (all-day free thief 81 years full) and flying, At the age of 261. Shao Da Tiansheng will fly over eight years, 269 years old. In 19 years, Tao Zhongwen is flying, 251 years old. Jiao Yuanjun needs to wait more than 80 years and fly at 279. The last Pan Yuanjun is waiting for the longest time, and when he fately, he fately, he is 256 years old.
Taking into account the long life of the coordinates, longevity can reach 300 years old [4], and the above estimated flying age is practical. Therefore, there is no other accident in the order of the top ten inquiry, and it can be safely flying in accordance with the existing door credit. If there is not much longer life, there is no longer life. The high-rise high-rise, revealed that the wind is older. Evaluation model predicts that after Zhang Dazhen fed 66 years, the wind and big people can fly. If this year (Jiajing 29 years) is not more than 211 years old, it can still be flying before the age of 270.
The problem of the age limit of the lescistest is the most worth mentioning example, and the example of Zhang Dazhen and Longyang Zuo. However, according to the author's analysis, Zhang Dazhen has a question. The eight treasures have repeatedly revealed that Zhang Dazhen's life is long, around 300 years old. However, according to Zhang Datong in Jiajing 21 years, he has gone in 98 years ago [5]; according to the Empress Zhao Zhe people, Zhang Dazhen came into the hely of the world at 173 [6]. Therefore, the actual age should be 234 hours when Zhang Da is flying. Longyang ancestors age is much clearer. If there is no accident, Longyang Zu Shi is 261 years old. In any case, before the eight treasures of the eight treasures provide more detailed data, Jiao Yuanjun will be the biggest look at the age of the age (279 years old), but still lower than the sunshine sunshine.
3. Flying in the next 120 flying prediction
In the latest news, the number of monks has increased by 3,000 per 100 years ago, an increase in 3,000 [2] every 6 years. After 20 years of Jiajing, due to the sternnate of the sophisticated bone, the number of positive bones was increased, and the positive bone was high. The high-level high-level high-rise is too large after the next 120 years, and the increase in the number of the number of people is full.
According to the revised population growth model, it is estimated that Jiajing 18 years ago, Daming is more than 5,940 million. There are two monks (0.22%), slightly higher than the current ratio (0.12%). If the current ratio is used, the upper limit of the population is 10 million, then after 120 years, the qualification of the subscriber is 180,000.
Before calculating the number of monks added to the use of Zhengbang, consider the influence cycle of the orthodontan, that is, the time affecting each successful orthose. This cycle is mainly affected by the monk life. Since most monks are more difficult to enter the mage realm (Shouyuan 80) [4], the effect of rough statistical primary bone is reset after 100 years. In recent years, more than 700 orthodonts will be issued annually, put some margins, and do not exceed 1,000 pieces per year. After a hundred years of regular bone Dan, it has been affected by the number of orthodonts from the previous 100 years. Therefore, after 120 years, the total number of monsons in the mid-bone in-bone practice is about 100,000.
At present, tertus metro, the coordinate monks, 10 people, less than 9 people, about 7 of every 100,000 monks. According to this ratio, after 120 years, there are 13 people in the 180,000 universities that do not need to be orthodont; and there are 7 uniforms in the 100,000 universities of the sputum practice. Therefore, after 120 years later, Da Ming has a total of 280,000 monks, 20 of which are helped. According to the forecast of the foresight, 120 years later, 10 invested in Pan Yuanjun have fly; and at least 1 new promotion is flying after Pan Yuanjun. Since then, all the joints are new promotion, each flying interval is 9 years. The coathy on the 14th flying sequence needs to wait for 126 years. If this monk enters the well, Pan Yuanjun is generally around 160 years old, still can be flying at the age of 286. The top 15 to 20 digits is required to wait for 135 to 180 years. If the life is limited, the flying hope is not much.
Considering the speed of the monk, Chu Yang has become a refining imperial in 34 years, and it is called Qi [7]. The time required for refining is unknown, it is estimated to be 20 years. The coefficient is complete, Zhang Dazhen 38 years, Shao Da Tianshi 33 years [6]. Therefore, the monk will be able to rise in short in short in 90 years. Just as Zhang Dadong lets the flying row order (two sort), or if Longyang Zushi is expected to rise in 81 years, the future genius monk is likely to give the flying sort to the lack of birthday. Therefore, the current credit system may be able to support 20 hidden days after 120 years.
4. Population upper limit
This analysis is the upper limit of Daming in Daming at 101 million. If considering higher upper limits, such as 1.5 billion, the number of monks and total credit income varies. After 120 years, there is no need for the total number of orthogonal practices to be more than 280,700, but there can be 20 uniforms; there are 100,000 sternum monks, 7 of which are invered. A total of 27 combined. And the population exceeds the upper limit of 10 million, and also brings a lot of credit. It is time to wait for ten or more than 93 years. Since then, the flying interval has gradually drops to 5 years. After 120 years, the flying interval is even further reduced. If only 27 hidden roads, the last one needs to wait for 135 to fly, even faster than 180 years of analysis. For longer future, the number of related times and the growth of the credit will need to further analyze.
5 Conclusion
In the next 120, if the per capita credit continued to increase to 22,000 yuan in 3.74%, and the number of positive bones per year was not more than 1,000, and 10 in today's all-in-law and the same period coexistened. Successfully flying; the success of the row of 15 to 20 will succeed depends on the age of the monk and the predecessor of the monk. If Daming population growth can exceed 150 million upper limit, according to the development model of this credit, 27 coexistences to coexist will continue to be smooth.
references
1. Seventh volume, Chapter 91, Longhu Mountain
2. The 12th Route 101
3. The 12th volume of the 56th Zhang Tengming's
4. Section 6, Chain 9, Meeting in Qingcheng
5. Volume 52 chapter due to fruit
6. Eleventh Volume 149 of the Background
7. Chapter 87, Chapter 87, is wrong or calculated?