The Economics of Prophecy

"No Monster Flood occurs in the West."

The old man watched Alfina, who explains diligently. But after you turned to me, the line wasn't even there. Where did the favorite grandfather go who was stroking his long white beard?

Three days after the hypothesis review meeting in the library. Me, Meer, and Alfina were in the librarian's room. Across from us sits an old man, the owner of the room. I'm about seventy years old. Seems unusual given the origin of the four men in the Baron's family.

Most importantly, it's an unspeakable absenteeism given the merit of devising a means of predicting a warcraft flood. I want to curse myself for being so sympathetic.

From what I've looked into over the last three days, I thought he was an interesting person, but he's not funny about the civilian boys over there beside the princess. By the way, there are two civilians on this occasion, but Meer was sometimes recommended for tea treats.

The first time Alfina introduced me to a friend, my attitude hardened all at once. Is that what you call a bad bug on your pretty granddaughter? I want you to give me a break because it's the same thing that surprised me when they told me I was a friend. But if you try to explain otherwise, you're going to be tagged with agitator or your side of the rap.

Or I guess it's already attached in this guy's head.

Oh, you don't have to stare. Because you don't have to worry. I know the world I live in is different. In the first place, I don't have the longing or anything else for the world she lives in. I'm sure she's the most beautiful girl in love at first sight if she's not a landmine property called a princess, but what happened is a coincidence.

Instead, I tried so hard to keep my distance. As a result, this is the situation for some reason.

He was trying to make the Buddha's top face, thinking of excuses he couldn't put out in his mouth. By the way, the face of the Buddha is said to be up to three times, but there is a high chance in this world that civilians will become real Buddhas ”if they are pissed off” by nobles three times.

"The most likely, conceivable from the situation, is the Warcraft Flood. So be sure to ask the curator for his wisdom..."

"I can think of as many aerospace theories on my desk, etc. How likely is it to be a warcraft flood if there is a disaster?

When I added the words, I put my chin on my hand on the desk and said it looked dizzy.

"Well, if there are three out of ten, is that your word?"

"What!? …………

It was Alfina who surprised me. Well, I guess so, I don't rely too much on less than a third of the most likely. But that's the thing. I looked straight at Fulsey. The choice of this grandfather's words just now. Attitude indicates that you are the right person for this flow.

"Why consider that degree of hypothesis?

"That, as I said earlier, it is nevertheless the greatest possibility. And warcraft flooding is preventable. This means that we have some idea of the mechanism behind it. I mean, this hypothesis is verifiable."

"To some extent,"

"Yes, in other words. With your wisdom, the hypothesis can be a hundred percent or zero percent. If you know there's going to be a warcraft flood, that's fine. Otherwise, we can consider the following hypotheses."

I answered without looking away.

"He said he came here for it. I see,,..."

Fulsey finally raised her jaw. I catch one eye and laugh.

"The princess wanted to borrow my wisdom. You need no wisdom, no judgment. Just give me the knowledge. Actually, I'm not saying that."

"That's not true. Ricardo..."

"Correct. Because that's how experts make use of it."

"Ricardo!? That's why..."

Alfina makes a slight face. Fulsey stood silently when she glanced at me. Alfina floats her back trying to pull it off.

"The Mountains, a demonic vein, and the surrounding red forest (Rubel Valt) are monster space. Usually, demons never get out of there. A warcraft flood is when demons suddenly flock to the flatlands, or human space. Two hundred years ago, a massive flood of warcraft from the eastern Red Forest (Rubel Valt) triggered the demise of the Old Dynasty, and we learned that in history."

The old scholar suddenly began lecturing when he stopped in front of a stone slab attached to the wall. Next door is a map depicting the entire kingdom, with many markings on the mountains of the East.

"Nothing so massive has occurred since, but there are still, on average, small warcraft floods every six years in the East and medium-sized warcraft floods every decade. And the cause is…"

Fulsey pointed to the Oriental Mountains.

"It's a fluctuation of the demonic pulse. The temper responsible for half of the demonic energy, or messy magic, springs from the bottom of the earth. Therefore, the structure of the mountain range may be referred to as a magic flow as it is. As you can see, the mountains of the East are intricately intertwined."

There are many red lines in the eastern mountains and circles where it meets. I see, should I consider the mountain a river with magic flowing through it?

"The result is a period of calm when magic currents strike off each other and a period of overlap and roughness. It doesn't affect monster ecosystems that rely on magic. Simply put, more magic adds more demons. If magic diminishes after that, the demons starve. The result is a flood of warcraft."

Ordinary creatures, starting with humans, are based on the energy of the sun's light. But demons live by taking in not only the magic that springs from the earth. There was also an ecosystem that did not depend on sunlight for the planet and obtained energy from deep-sea hot water deposits.

"Meanwhile, the Western Mountains are simple. There can be no great fluctuations in magic like in the east. That's what I want to know."

Come on, Fulsey's gonna ask me with her eyes. I see, the size is comparable to that of the East, but the Western Mountains extend straight from south to north. This explanation makes sense. It is unlikely that that is a flood of warcraft than disaster will come from the West.

If you think of it on the same basis that you abandoned restraint on your ideas and denied water damage and volcanic eruptions, you should make that decision.

Alfina turns her troubled face to me. If the possibility is modified, the hypothesis is withdrawn. There are no lies in that word. But...

"May I borrow your tablet? Meer, explain that data."

Me and Meer weren't playing for three days either. Meer stood in front of the tablet to be replaced by Fulsey.

"The weather in the Kingdom is stable and temperatures remain almost unchanged between East and West. The only thing that makes some difference is the rainfall, and the yield matches the rainfall very well. Correlation coefficient is 0.86"

Meer started explaining. Fulsey twisted her neck wondering what would begin. Alfina is also puzzled by stories that are not in the meeting.

"What is the correlation coefficient?

"Simply put, two quantities quantify the strength involved. For example, the relationship between the yield and the sale of luxury preferences. shown in such simple calculations."

Meer showed the formula on the tablet.

"That's not an interesting calculation. Makes sense. But can you trust the key yield? No matter how brilliantly you calculate the wrong data, it doesn't just amplify the mistake."

Harvests are closely related to taxes. In other words, the nobles try to deceive. By the way, these Fulsey words suck. Because it's a fact that everyone knows that tax evasion is rampant, but no one can talk about it. Meer saw me. Let's see if we can step in. I nodded.

"I don't trust you when it comes to aristocratic territory. But even in the sense of restraining aristocratic territory, the yields of the direct jurisdiction managed by officials can be trusted to some extent. It is also evident from the dispersion of the yield"

Meer applied paper to the tablet. The harvests of aristocratic and direct jurisdictions are indicated in points. It's like saying that noble territory harvests are not normally distributed, distorted by some factor, no convenience.

"The aristocratic harvest is unnatural in its dispersion. Direct jurisdiction on the other hand is closer to nature than that. The results are shown in this formula, with obvious differences. We're using direct jurisdiction for this data."

This data is a bomb. Because it leads to greater efficiency in the investigation of tax evasion by nobles. But this time, priority will be given to buying this old man's interest. I can talk in numbers, I just have to believe the intuition that I thought I would.

"That's funny. To describe the difference from the average, hang it up and then. No, it's a formula for the concept of coincidence..."

The suggestion is that Fulsey is completely drawn to the calculation.

"Back to business. When divided between East and West, the western end has a correlation coefficient of 0.9. Pretty much coincides with rainfall and yield, while the eastern end drops to 0.7. The reason is because there are” abundant ”years that don't match. Most recently, you've been in the kingdom 324, 314, 309. In these years, yields are” higher ”than predicted from rainfall."

Fulsey did her hand to the beard.

"The year the Warcraft flood broke out in the East?"

"According to Alfina's prophecy, this year the West means abundance. The East, on the other hand, is not. In other words, not only is the prophecy of disaster strange, but also the prophecy of abundance."

The two of you are surprised by Meer's words. Even we were surprised to find out. I didn't know it had anything to do with the disaster of warcraft flooding. It was a blind spot while taking care of primary information.

After this, my role. I stood up and pointed to the map.