The Economics of Prophecy

"What do you mean Kurtheit is special"

To my question, Maria and Roston checked each other's faces. Roston nods small. Maria opened her mouth.

"What I'm trying to say is a time story. You remember the story of the rock salt deal with the Empire."

"Ah!"

Exports of rock salt take place from Kurtheit.

"Well, dealings with geographically distant empires. Moreover, a limited number of State-led channels. Transport is carried out as collectively as possible. Isn't that right, Senior Maria?"

"Yeah, salt isn't under the jurisdiction of the food guild, so I know more about it. Most of Kurt Height's salt will be brought out nearby. Kalest, who was dividing that business over there, got slapped, sounds financially painful, and you're in a hurry. For Kurtheit, salt can be replenished quickly."

"Well, if for any reason you can't get into the mountains,"

"You're going to be in a situation where you can't say abundance when it comes to salt. I don't know if I'm gonna go as far as a shortage."

"Okay. What about Senior Rosston, then?

- What I'm trying to say is, it's about food.

"As far as the material goes, we have stockpiles commensurate with the city's population. Even if we lose contact with the Duke, we'll hold out for six months or so."

Luetua looked at the dossier again.

- Problem is, people live outside the city.

Roston said. What do you mean, food should be rather abundant outside the city.

"Kurtheit is a rare mountain in the kingdom. Minerals such as rock salt and precious mountain forest products can be harvested. The plan to transport the Empire's timber to Kurtheit is because there's a forestry hub over there. By the way, that's the truffle Vinder said, and I can pick that up there, too."

"Right..."

I looked at the map again. Numerous villages are densely located near Kurtheit, which is held in the mountains. Moreover, many of them face the mountains, not the flat side. Both mining and forestry require large numbers of personnel.

"There are quite a few people around Kurtheit who do not work in agriculture"

I thought about the past disaster. If the country hadn't moved, I would have evacuated the villagers to Bertoldo, a nearby city.

"Depending on the type of disaster, the isolation of Kurtheit and the influx of refugees from around it occur simultaneously. Then the food..."

I saw Meer.

"Calculating on that assumption, food and salt are immediately scarce"

Meer gave the answer in an instant.

"Kurtheit is the first candidate..."

I've come to a conclusion.

"That sucks."

Luetua said. This is the main mountain of the hostile faction.

"What do you mean? If we warn you now, we can prepare food reserves and salt. The Grand Duke and the Chancellor of the East are close, aren't they? See, Chairman Hilda and Senior Leonardo even during the Shaoxian Festival..."

"I hope you get my opinion out of here."

Sure, we just need to be able to pre-accommodate food from the well-stockpiled Duke's territory to Kurtheit. But there's a good chance that we'll misinterpret this intent and think it's some kind of ploy. If they thought they would use Alfina's prophecy for factional rivalries, they wouldn't have ears to listen.

"- It also hurts that the identity of the disaster is unknown. unconvincing."

"Why, you're so clear. In the first place, whatever the reason, if we don't get the product, we'll be together."

"Yeah, well, not everyone's as straight as Lilka."

Belmini said.

"Ugh. Don't call me a simple fool."

"It's okay, because it's still a lot better than the seniors"

"That's no consolation. Being subject to comparison with Vinder doesn't seem too late in itself."

What, it's too late? You don't have to tell me. I'm aware of that.

"I will continue to consider who the disaster is. But assuming a disaster happens, can't you move with the food guild?"

Restore your mind and ask Maria.

"The target is a population size that also fits Kurtheit and its surroundings. The scale will be quite limited given that we don't understand this intent. It's only surplus we do business with. And as far as stockpiling is concerned, it's directly under the Lord's jurisdiction. I'm not going to sell it to the citizens. Costly."

"That's right."

For example, suppose that the Grand Duke manipulated distribution to lower the price of food around Kurtheit, he might think about buying in food. It's the opposite of Hideyoshi's attack on Tottori Castle. But compared to making people buy the same amount of food directly, they need multiple times as much money. Besides, he's not coming home.

"What about rock salt?

"As I said, food and salt guilds are separate organizations. Kalest was just doing both the land patterns. Well, maybe we can get in the way of the replaced Kalest and delay the transport a little. But there's nothing I can do with my words."

"Right. I need the Grand Duke to move there. Anyway, let's pass on this conclusion that we've all reached."

If the shipment is delayed, Kurtheit will retain a reserve of salt. Much better than a double punch of food and salt. Lack of minerals swells the human body far faster than food. Even with help, the severity of the sequelae can be out of step.

"Well, I'll tell the Grand Duke what you do. Vinder, I need you to come with me."

I nodded at Luiza's words. If famine occurs as a result of a disaster, delaying it will also increase the time available to respond to the disaster. Of course, it's best not to wake you up, but assuming the best, you won't even be able to cope with a better situation.

"Wait. At a time like this, the birds are ready. I can deliver it the day after tomorrow. It's good in the curator's office."

I tried to leave the room. I was stopped by Dulgan. Yes, I was, that experiment makes me ready par when I spare time, more than dealing with creatures.

"... well, I'll confirm my plans with the curator, but I'll ask you the day after tomorrow"

Oh, already, why are you so busy?

"Ooh, experiment? Was it? If you're going to use a bird, there's something I can do."

"Yes, of course, but are you okay"

The members here are never free people either. Anyway, they're from the Silver Chamber of Commerce.

"Yeah, I don't know what I'm gonna do, but I kind of remember how to handle birds"

"It really helps"

It's a big difference just because there are people who judge birds. Yeah, more to do, but more buddies to give me a hand. Not if you're complaining.

I smashed my fist gently into the fist with the durgan on it.

◇ ◇

"I see. Is this the result of my work as a merchant?"

"... Ricardo. Ricardo is really..."

When I explained the conclusions of the Central Garden, the Grand Duke took me seriously. Alfina is moisturizing her eyes.

"No, no, because this conclusion is the occasional cooperation of everyone in Central Garden..."

"I know. Think of the rewards a concubine can offer."

"I need to thank you all properly."

Apparently, both of us, the conclusion makes no sense. Next thing you know...

"I'm giving you three particularly dangerous cities, but my destiny is Kurtheit. Can't you get the Grand Duke and Chancellor of the East to take care of it..."

When I said that, the Grand Duke turned his back.

"Why do you have to bow your head to the one who's going to help you? So is the Chancellor. We just had a conversation to get that material. Well, if Kurtheit crumbles, don't make it a little easier."

"No, I'll manage there -"

"If you can say so, politics is an easy thing. Well, I don't know if I can get it properly, but let's get some information out of that lookout that makes me nervous. Later..."

They made fun of me. I just have to leave the negotiations to the great nobles, or I definitely don't want to do it. Even though it hurts my stomach just to talk to people I don't know.

"Dear Aunt, I too will come to the persuasion of the Duke of Greenicias. Your aunt was bored with the Duke, wasn't she? I think you should have me."

"Bye..."

The Grand Duke keeps saying. This is the Chancellor who hunted down Alfina until he fell. I want to stop, too. There is also the issue of liability if it was wrong. Even Alfina is responsible for prophecy.

"About prophecy is my role. Yet all Ricardo and the others are making me carry the hard work. Besides, the Duke doesn't think he's going to be the one doing his official business."

"Well, it does make more sense than the Grand Duke of the East..."

Indeed, this conclusion could not have been reached without the accuracy of that dossier.

"Besides, if I were there, I could push through a lot by saying prophecy. You can't let Meer know what she's capable of."

"Dear Alfina,"

I just had to swallow the words I tried to stop.

"It's okay. I have nothing to be afraid of right now."

Alfina grinned. If you look closely, your blood color is completely back.

It's good that you're feeling better, but that kind of unfounded confidence feels a bit like a conservative crisis.

"Speaking of which, I hear you've spoken fervently about Alfie in the hospital bed."

"such as dictating Master Alfina. I don't remember that anywhere."

"Oh, when my concubine called me Alfie, I would have said that it would be good to call her away, too"

"That would only be between you and the Grand Duke."

You can call me my aunt or my concubine.

I can't believe you're calling me already in your heart. My uncle set me up. Later, when I said my aunt or something, my neck was going to fly.

"Dear Aunt, Ricardo is in trouble. But speaking of which, Alfina was..."

"Senior? When did that happen?"

Alfina dyed her cheeks, for some reason, tends to look up at me. I only once because I thought I was right about the momentum. And Meer's jito eyes pierce. I hate the Grand Duke, who is nibbling behind the two of them.

"And anyway. I'll take care of the royal palace."

I told them to get out of sight. There's no way you can win. With these three, Vinder votes are approaching two-thirds, so shareholders.