The Economics of Prophecy

"Your father told me. The new guy, Mr. Silver Chamber of Commerce, has a lot of face."

"I'm an investor."

Maria said sarcastically. I want you to say anything. The cooperation of the Director of the Food Guild on this matter is essential.

"Even if you're a investor, the stock that wasn't is the way to do it. Besides, Meer's supposed to be one of the investors, right? Not like the investors I know."

Lilka said when she saw me and Meer bow their heads and leave after the maid at the mansion put tea in the gathered members.

"It's like playing for the Grand Duke."

"We're lending Vinder money, aren't we? Just in case, how do I take it?"

Maria said with a quiet face.

"No, no, creditor. I'll give it back to you. Let's get down to business. Kenwell would have been informed to some extent."

I pointed the water at the eldest daughter of the food guild leader.

"That's up to your father. I'm scared to hear what Luitzer's going to say about being there."

"I need to keep a secret. Think of me as an admirer."

Luitzer said something even scarier. Well, given the importance of the topic we're going to be dealing with here, we can't help it.

Three days after that visit, I was gathering Central Gardens at the Grand Duke's residence.

"I haven't had a lot. Shall I tell you? The purpose of this informal meeting."

Reluctant to Luetua, Pulla sat in the chair deeper than usual heard. I just nodded that you listened well.

"One city in this country is going to starve, but I want to do something about it."

"What?

I got to the point, but Dalgan asked me back. Deaf merchants are as deadly as communal disorders. No, will that just sound inconvenient, or is it more for merchants?

"Hey, hey, what's a Central Garden... it was a place for interactions at Shaoxian Festival mock shops, right?"

Bermini rocked Lilka's shoulder. Lilka is stroking her head with a troubled face.

- I was expecting something, but when it comes to you, you're in a hell of a situation.

Roston certified me as an over-volatile person. I want you to stop.

"I'll explain it right, actually -"

Together, I will explain the image of the prophecy I heard from Alfina. About the prophecy that famine could strike the north of this country. I would add that as a result of Alfina being forced to fall, the range of images expanded to mean that we could see only a few things like the walls of the town.

"Prophecy, right. It's not like I wouldn't believe it if I thought about the last time. As far as we know, there's no sign of it."

"Right, grain formation also sounds right on the market for meat. We don't have that information either."

Maria and Dalgan said, and the other three nodded as well. It goes hand in hand with the conclusions of the Royal Palace's Countermeasures Conference. I guess I can still trust that material.

"Yeah, but the cause of famine isn't necessarily inaction. In the first place, by the nature of prophecy, famine occurs only as a result of disaster"

I said. The Grand Duke, who boarded the Chancellery for failing to manage Alfina's physical condition, and Meer, who followed him, grabbed an overview of the material collected by the Royal Palace's countermeasures meeting. At least a decent analysis has been carried out with regard to the investigation of abundant crop failure, and we have come to the conclusion that if this is unpredictable, we cannot do anything.

I guess the Chancellor is competent. At least with regard to these tasks.

So it's an approach from a different direction. And that's the merchant's turn. Let me show you the power of the private sector.

"Yeah. I mean, some kind of sudden event causes a blockade of distribution, and there's going to be cities with food shortages."

Maria said. Pre-modern hunger occurs for reasons other than absolute food shortages. When one area is unscrupulous, people starve even when others are abundant.

By the way, this time we exclude war and civil unrest from the beginning. There is a great river to the north, but so is the flooding. It doesn't fit with the image of prophecy. We considered the spread of crop diseases like potato famine in Ireland, but there is no time for pathogen transmission in boulders. There is no example of the harm done to the sea urchin.

"And then, considering what a hungry human looks like. Perhaps the health damage caused by excess minerals, potassium is occurring at the same time"

The image of starvation had a great impact on me just because I heard about it. I came from a saturated country where nearly half of the food would be thrown away, and it was a rich farming country that was reincarnated.

- What is potassium?

"Oh, I'm sorry. Simply put, the area is likely to lack not only food, but salt."

In hunger, there is not only food, but also a lack of salt taken from food. And there is a lack of sodium in the body due to excess potassium and synergies caused by eating roadside grass and the like.

Alfina's Seen Hungry Child. Only the nail swells unnaturally even though it's a gully leg. Looks like a hungry ghost called edema likely means that. But the season when famine occurs is autumn to winter. It is necessary to consider the possibility that there is also a shortage of salt than there is a lack of salt lost in sweat, as in summer.

"Why have we been gathered? What do you want me to do?"

Lilka said.

"Oh, I want to assess vulnerability to hunger by region on a biaxial basis. One is food production and stockpiling in that area. The other is the magnitude of the impact if we assume that the trading corridor has been blocked. Calculate these two to create a crisis prediction map of the city"

"Me, it's going to be a huge task. Besides, I can't believe this year's data on yields everywhere..."

Belmini told me he wasn't confident.

"The harvests from all parts of the country and the state of food reserves summarized at the Royal Palace Countermeasures Conference are available in materials. The production is a first-class product called the Agriculture Bureau, the Chancellor of the Supervisory Kingdom."

"Another hell of a thing, it would be a state secret. For us, it's so much material that we want it from our throats."

"Yeah, so I can't show you guys directly. And I'll incinerate it when I'm done with it, so obviously."

I saw the only nobleman here. Have Luitzer manage the materials. Memories of Meer? Hiding Meer's abilities is a priority.

"I mean, is it the way we look into it? I see we know more about the flow of things than officials."

Lilka made a fist grip by making a snap.

"Right. Besides, you can't afford not to help the princess."

"Well, I have to pay back what I owe you for taking care of me during Shaoxian Festival."

The members of the Central Garden were visibly motivated. I didn't bring him here to take care of it, but it's a dialogue I want Alfina to hear.

The members repeated their hustle and bustle. The missing information even follows the story of their respective homes and acquaintances. As a result, a number of vulnerable cities were washed out.

"... Tori, Basher, Pomrus, and Kurtheit."

Maria named six names. It is a city that depends on very limited distribution routes from its location and surrounding terrain. Members nod. I saw Luitzer. The sound of turning the material echoed, and Luitzer shook her head.

"As far as this material shows, there are no cities with particular problems."

Cities that are densely populated with large numbers of people who do not work in agriculture are potentially vulnerable to hunger. That's why administrators invest in stockpiling food. Essentially, they tend to boast as abundant stockpiles as large cities. Seasonal pattern, just before the harvest or when disaster occurs. Assuming it's last minute, it'll be the least stockpiled period of the year, but still.

"Basher and Volms are one way or another in the South, aren't they?... Kurtheit is the biggest city in the north. We're surrounded by mountains, and food depends on supplies from the outside."

It is only in the direction of disaster, but it cannot be ignored. Almost in the centre of the long kingdom to the east and west is the King's Capital, Bertoldo to the west and Kurtheit to the east. Kurtheit is in the north as far as the king's capital and Bertoldo are concerned.

"But as far as the material goes, there's no problem with stockpiling. It's one of the best cities in the kingdom, but we've got enough reserves to match the population. Adjacent to Kurtheit is the Duke of Greenesias, the best student in terms of food reserves."

Luetua shook her head with one hand of the material. The Chancellor and Kurtheit are neighbors or the same faction. If there were, we'd work together.

"But on the terrain, it's still a problem. For example, if this place is blocked by a cliff collapse, Kurtheit will be isolated. We'll lose contact with the Chancellor."

View the map of Pulra at your fingertips. Kurtheit is at the foot of the mountain, and the big road directly out of the city leads to one heading south, and of course soon to many, but if one of the roots breaks off, it will be pretty bad.

"Shit, there's rock salt out there. Vinder said it was a land pattern that had nothing to do with lack of salt."

"It was."

That's what I said when I made the deal with the Empire. In a way, it's the least likely place in the country to run out of salt.

"As far as the dossier goes, Kurtheit alone is fine with food."

It's a nice place on the map. But if the information denies it, we should follow it. We need to look at the data calmly. It's the main mountain of the hostile faction. I may be unconsciously tempted to slap you too.

"Is Kurtheit okay, bye"

I tried to consider the other five.

"No, not necessarily this time."

But Maria and Roston said it at the same time.